There are now twenty days remaining before America votes - but some Americans have started voting already. Several states allow early voting, and according to SurveyUSA exit polling Obama has already racked up substantial leads among those who have already voted - an average of 23% in the key battlegrounds of Georgia, Iowa, New Mexico, North Carolina and Ohio. Whatever happens in tonight's debate and the weeks that follow, those votes are in the bag. Obama could reveal himself to be a baby-murdering Muslim, and they could not be taken back.
Now, Nate Silver argues that this is not the great advantage pundits take it to be, since most of those early voters will be committed partisans anyway. However, he does take it to show a considerable enthusiasm gap between the Democratic and Republican bases. As I explained in my last post, the ability to turn out voters is key to this election. SurveyUSA may have revealed that the Obama campaign's ability to do that is just as impressive as I described.