Earlier this week, I caught up with Peter Goldmark, Program Director for Climate & Air at US NGO Environmental Defense.
I asked him what he thought would be the major cleavage points of the Bali negotiations. This is Peter's headline analysis:
[quote]The underlying dynamic of this Bali meeting is the ballet among the US, China and India.
The Bush Administration, which will sit at the US microphone for another 12 months, basically wants nothing serious to happen. But it is feeling isolated and a little bruised after the Major Economies conference where they were listened to with polite distance in public, and scoffed at in private.
China is increasingly worried about global warming. The lead article in People's Daily on November 16 featured the head of the China Meteorological Agency predicting a 10% decline in agricultural production under expected temperature increases. And the phrase "scientific development" is everywhere.
But it is doubtful that China will discuss issues seriously until the US takes a cap and starts down the road of serious greenhouse gas reductions. And the arena for that debate in the US has now shifted to the Congress, which really has the ball on this issue.
India, which for tactical reasons would like right now to gain favor with the US, appears poised to trumpet the traditional you-did-it-you-clean-it-up refrain that it has repeated in the past.
With temporary friends like these, the US may not have to raise its voice at all to get what it wants![/quote]
So where does this leave the Bali negotiations? How do we move beyond this mutually-amenable stalemate?
[quote]The opportunity at Bali is to build a procedural framework for the next two years, and to move forward with a framework for including deforestation in an eventual international system.
And the question of whether the logjam that is holding up substantive progress on climate change globally can be broken lies before a few hundred legislators in the US Congress, most of whom had scarcely spent more than a few minutes thinking about climate change until this year.
Meanwhile, the relentless clock of nature goes on ticking.[/quote]
So the most important influence on the search for a global deal could very well lie in Washington D.C... We'll be exploring the USA's internal divide over the coming days, weeks and months.
Do you have a different view of the diplomatic dynamics in Bali? Dive into the comments or get in touch!
We're looking to build an understanding that connects the on the ground negotiations with political contexts around the world - for that we need your input.