And the plot is...

Henry Porter tipped me off about this fascinating column by Steve Richards with a conclusion that implies Brown has agreed that if he can't raise Labour's poll ratings off the bottom of the sea he will leave in the Autumn. This suggests that Mandelson's conversation with Miliband went as follows: too wild and destructive for Brown to go now, with an implosion of divisions. Bleed the discontents and flippers like Hoon. Hold on for now with a clap of unity and prevent an Autumn election Labour is certain to lose. But if there is no bounce in support for Brown and Alan Johnson (or whoever) clearly emerges as a favoured leader, use the Party conference to give him a coronation with the election safely in May - and aim for the John Major scenario. This is burnt into Mandelson's memory, as Kinnock's lead collapsed after Thatcher was forced out. But, this is the implication, Brown has agreed to this scenario. He won't be humiliated but will appear as its generous and far-sighted architect, offering Labout the 'unity' he has always insisted on when he steps down.