A new, new world order?

In the aftermath of a high-intensity military campaign in Iraq, many thoughts turn to rebuilding and reform – and not just in Iraq.

Campaigners and activists are talking about ‘progressive globalisation’. There must be a hundred definitions and ideas of what this could mean (in Britain, the Fabian Society and Oxfam’s Kevin Watkins are among those thinking seriously about what it could be among consenting adults).

Some of the boldest ideas will be on display at the spring meeting of the World Bank and International Monetary Fund taking place in Washington DC on 12 and 13 April. Globolog is off to Washington to hear the arguments on all sides.

The World Bank and IMF are two of the three 'Bretton Woods Institutions' (the third is the World Trade Organisation) tasked with fostering development and managing financial stability. In many people’s eyes, their political and intellectual legitimacy is less than at almost any time in their recent history.

Joseph Stiglitz, who was chief economist at the World Bank until January 2000, and who won the 2001 ‘Nobel Prize’ for economics, is now one of the leading sceptics. From Russia to Argentina, says Stiglitz, the IMF and World Bank relied on a view of economics "so stilted, so ideologically driven, that they failed even in their narrower objective of bringing about economic growth. What they achieved was undiluted decline. No rewriting of history will change this".

So what is to be done? In his 2002 book Globalisation and its Discontents, Stiglitz recommends:

• Forcing the IMF to return to its original mission – managing crises. It should no longer be involved (outside crises) in development or economies in transition.

• Accepting the dangers of capital market liberalisation and that short-term capital flows (‘hot money’) impose huge costs borne by those not directly party to the transaction.

• Bankruptcy reform – a 'super chapter 11' that expedites restructuring and gives greater presumption for continuing existing management – both for private and public debt – in developing countries. Less reliance on bailouts; the IMF should not bail out creditors.

• Improved banking regulation and risk management. Improved safety nets, including better unemployment insurance.

Pretty dry stuff, I know, when put in these terms – and certainly open to debate. But the arcane workings of the world financial system have huge, if not immediately apparent, impacts on the lives of hundreds of millions of people. How seriously will the directors and governors of the World Bank and IMF engage? Globolog will be trying to find out, and will also report on a democratisation campaign being pushed by leading NGOs. It is also worth checking out IFIwatchnet.

Quand la guerre est finie

During the very moments when the giant statue of Saddam in Paradise Square, Baghdad, was being torn down on the afternoon of 9 April, campaigners in London’s Parliament Square were calling for the evil American and British aggression to stop ('Support the Resistance!' proclaimed the Socialist Workers' Party, meaning the Ba'athist militia and its Syrian friends). Now the first part of their wish may be partly granted, although not in the way they would have liked. And now comes the hardest bit of all, as Thomas Friedman accurately reflects in his latest column.

Getting it right in Iraq may be nigh on impossible, but the price of failure is grim to contemplate. Among the more creative and sensible ideas out there is one from Paul Berman, author of a brilliant study of al-Qaida’s inspirational philosopher Sayyid Qutb. Berman argues that Germany should play a leading role in ‘de-Ba’athification’ of Iraq (that is, rooting out the remnants of the national socialist regime in that country).

Germany, Berman says, has successfully dealt with both its Nazi legacy and that of communist totalitarianism in the east, and has a lot to teach others in this regard. Those able to set aside cheap cynicism – or overcome plain ignorance – will agree that this is largely true. Modern Germany, for all its problems, is one of the most progressive countries around.

If the Germans do take on a role in the rebuilding of Iraq – as they have in Afghanistan – my hope is that their motives would be higher than craven calculation (word reaches openDemocracy on the bush telegraph via Moscow and Paris that ‘enormous back-peddling’ is going on in Berlin with regard to the German government’s position towards America; a directive has gone out to Deutsche Welle – something half-way between the Voice of America and the BBC World Service – to ‘stop being anti-American and start being anti-Russian’). In short, Another Germany is Possible – the Germany of Immanuel Kant, Heinrich Heine and Sophie Scholl.

Can there be justice, rather than blood, for oil? In case it was not already easy to be sceptical, reports that the Israelis eyes are already on Iraqi oil will give pause to wonder.

One of the straws I clutch at is that the Bush dynasty will not be in place indefinitely. It could even be in its last twenty months (that’s about six hundred days, or 14,400 hours). A little while ago the American TV host Jay Leno said:

“President Bush has said if Iraq gets rid of Saddam Hussein, he will help the Iraqi people with food, medicine, supplies, housing, education – anything that’s needed. Isn’t that amazing? He finally comes up with a domestic agenda – and it’s for Iraq. Maybe we could bring that here if it works out! “

Every now and then the Americans do something completely amazing, like vote for someone who does not dismantle the commonwealth. They could do it at the next presidential election in November 2004. For inspiration, they can look to Brazil, where – so far at least – the man who has received more votes than any other human being except, er, Ronald Reagan, is leading a courageous, balanced programme to tackle poverty and domestic vested interests as well as (and I’m keeping my fingers crossed) steering a canny course with international financial institutions.

The Brazilian example could inspire a new birth of freedom in the US. To help this along, the rest of the world had better send the Americans atlases so that they can find Brazil, and recordings of the music of, say, Caetano Veloso so that they relax, not invade.