‘So f***ed’: Advisers said Johnson learnt nothing from first Covid wave

Two of Boris Johnson’s closest advisers ranted about the UK being “so f***ed” amid a failure to lock down in autumn 2020, WhatsApp messages shown to the Covid inquiry have revealed.

Lee Cain, Johnson’s then director of communications, complained that the government had failed to learn from its previous mistakes in a message sent to Ben Warner, a data expert brought into Number 10.

On 12 October, almost three weeks before the prime minister announced a second national lockdown in England, Cain wrote: “We are so f***ed…why are we not acting in London and urban areas now? Same errors as March.”

Warner replied: “Agreed. Feel like we are where we knew we would be three/four weeks ago.”

Cain responded: “Should have done a circuit breaker [lockdown]. And still should – half term might be too late. London will soon be out of control.”

Two days after their messages, a ‘tier system’ came into force in England, introducing new regional restrictions based on the number of Covid cases in an area. London was placed in Tier Two, meaning people could still go to pubs and restaurants with people from their household or bubble.

The tier system failed to stop the spread of the virus, and a four-week national lockdown began on 5 November. On 19 December, less than three weeks after that lockdown ended, Johnson issued a ‘stay at home’ order for those in London and the south-east of England, banning all socialising over Christmas for people in those areas.

Last week the inquiry heard from Helen MacNamara, a top civil servant in the Cabinet Office, who claimed that despite “reasonable” calls for a ‘fire-break’ lockdown in autumn 2020, “the politics wouldn’t allow for it.”

‘F***ed in any scenario’

The inquiry also heard how the NHS had not begun modelling the impact Covid would have on the health system in late February 2020.

Warner wrote to Patrick Vallance, then the chief scientific adviser, on 27 February after attending a SAGE meeting. He said he was “concerned the NHS didn’t seem to know what they needed for their models and didn’t seem to have started modelling”.

Vallance responded: “Yes I have been pushing them on this for the last 10 days or so.”

The inquiry was shown a note that Warner took during that SAGE meeting, which discussed the different mitigation strategies that were being considered at the time.

It read, “NHS f**ked in any scenario” – referring to the fact that by that point, previous government delays meant that even swift action would fail to prevent the health service from being overwhelmed.

The note was written three days after Johnson's ten-day holiday in his Kent mansion, during which the then prime minister did not receive any updates about the escalating Covid crisis.

In his witness statement to the inquiry, Warner said that, in early March, he was “worried that this point [the NHS being overwhelmed] was not at the front of the minds of those making decisions”.

He also criticised the government for failing to take account of the actions other countries were using to suppress the virus.

Warner wrote: “From early 2020 we should have developed alternative plans (for example lockdowns), after seeing the actions in China or at least after northern Italy.”

Speaking today, he elaborated on this position, saying that “you don't need…complex models to look at the activities China was taking or the activities that they were doing in northern Italy and think that we should have alternative plans.”

Warner also criticised a government exercise in February 2020 that looked at the UK's pandemic preparedness. He said the exercise didn’t “stress [test] the government’s plans in any serious way.”

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