Tom Griffin (London, OK): The Calman Commission on Scottish devolution today received a report on the future of taxation and public spending from its economic advisors.
The report's contents have been heavily spun over the past couple of days. Several members of the expert group told Scotland on Sunday that it would favour greater powers for Holyrood.
The expert group, led by leading economist Professor Anton Muscatelli, argues strongly that Holyrood must be made more accountable by having greater powers to raise taxes.
"The report is saying that total fiscal autonomy may have some downsides, but that doesn't mean that greater degrees of fiscal autonomy may not be more desirable," said Professor David Ulph, head of the school of economics at St Andrews University and a member of the group.
Today's Times had a slightly different version:
The report will not come down on the side of any particular model and will leave any recommendations on fiscal powers to the Calman commission which ordered its evidence-gathering work to be carried out. Suggestions that the economists favoured greater power over taxes being transferred to Edinburgh were dismissed by the UK Government yesterday.
A source said: “That is untrue. The report is a survey of what goes on in other places around the world. It will tell us about the principles of various systems and the trade-offs involved, but it will not recommend anything.”
No doubt the politicians on the commission will have the final say, but as Brian Taylor notes, they are not necessarily united among themselves.
I still believe that the competing interests within Calman may ultimately prove divergent. The LibDems want radical reform, including substantial tax powers. Labour is much more cautious and, at the UK Government level, partly preoccupied with the wish to placate English opinion.
The Conservatives are, quite understandably, using Calman as a think tank to prepare for what they might have to confront in government, should they win power at Westminster. This has a long way to go.
