Vallance: Sunak likely knew ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ would drive Covid infections

Rishi Sunak probably knew his Eat Out to Help Out scheme was likely to drive Covid infections, the UK’s top scientific adviser during Covid has told the official inquiry into the pandemic.

Eat Out to Help Out, which incentivised people to return to indoor dining at pubs and restaurants, “completely reversed” all scientific advice that had been given to the UK during the pandemic, Patrick Vallance said today. He also told the inquiry the scheme was “highly likely to have" increased the number of Covid deaths.

Sunak previously told the inquiry he does not “recall any concerns at the scheme being expressed during the ministerial discussions” while Eat Out to Help Out was running.

This is likely because scientists were not consulted on the plan, which partially subsidised restaurant prices during August 2020 to encourage people to spend more money in the hospitality sector.

Addressing today’s hearing at the UK Covid-19 inquiry, former chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance said: “Up until that point, the message had been very clear, which is that interactions between different households and people that you weren’t living with in an enclosed environment with many others was a high-risk activity.

“[Eat Out to Help Out] completely reversed it, saying ‘we will pay you to go into an environment with people from other households and mix in an indoor environment for periods extended over a couple of hours or more’.”

Vallance said it was “a completely opposite public health message”.

He said that had he been asked for advice, he would have warned that transmission would have increased.

“It is very difficult to see how it wouldn’t have an effect on transmission,” he added, “and that would have been the advice that was given had we been asked beforehand.”

Questioning Vallance, Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice lawyer Pete Weatherby asked: “You’ve already told us that you didn’t know anything about the policy decision until after it had been taken. You’ve also told us that it inevitably increased the number of infections and therefore it must follow, mustn’t it, that it must have increased the number of deaths?”

Vallance replied: “It’s highly likely to have done so."

Research since has found a likely link between Eat Out to Help Out and the second wave of the virus in the autumn of 2020. To make matters worse, a 2021 report by the London School of Economics found that the policy had only had a “limited effect” on the livelihoods of restaurants and cafes. It also found that there had been “no knock-on benefits to other businesses from people taking advantage of the Eat Out to Help Out scheme”.

Vallance told the inquiry the first time SAGE heard about Eat Out to Help Out was when it was announced publicly.

“It was formulated as a policy so we weren’t involved in the run up to it,” said Vallance.

This caused concern among scientists advising the government.

“I think it would have been very obvious to anyone that this would inevitably cause an increase in transmission risk,” said Vallance. “That would have been known by [Sunak] if he was in the meeting.

“I can’t recall which meetings he was in, but I’d be very surprised if any minister didn’t understand that these openings carried risk.”

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