Just over a week after withdrawing fifty aircraft from operations in Libya, the US is now employing Predator drones in the stalemated conflict. US defence secretary Robert Gates stated that they were deployed on Thursday, following an order from the president. It is thought they will be used against loyalist forces currently besieging Misrata. The move comes just as various commentators debate the wisdom of what is seen as ‘mission creep’ on the part of the main western allies, following the decision by Italy, France and the UK to dispatch military advisers to the rebel-held east of the country.
The United States has dispatched $25 million worth of ‘non-lethal’ military equipment to the rebels. The European Union is also considering dispatching armed escorts with humanitarian convoys. UK defence secretary Liam Fox, speaking in Rome, has sparked fears of an open-ended commitment to Libya by comparing it to the situation in Afghanistan, where British troops have been engaged for nearly a decade.
In Misrata, fighting between rebels and loyalists continues to escalate as the siege continued into its eighth week. Gaddafi forces are using snipers to great effect and, reportedly, have resorted to using cluster munitions against the rebels. Such munitions have been banned by the 108 countries that are signatories to the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions. This is due to the indiscriminate nature of such weapon systems; by scattering hundreds of sub munitions or ‘bomblets’ over a wide area, they pose a significant risk to civilians both during conflict and for many years afterwards.
The openSecurity verdict: The continuing endurance of the Gaddafi regime has taken the western allies by surprise. Sustained support from sections of the population directly patronised by the dictator and the continued loyalty of substantial segments of the armed forces was not anticipated; the defection of Moussa Koussa on the 30th March was thought to augur the rapid collapse of the regime, this now appears unlikely.
Thus the allies continue to tread a very difficult tightrope. On the one hand they face domestic political risks that mount as the conflict drags on. Liam Fox’s remarks may inflame both UK political opposition to intervention and, more critically, French public opinion in the run up to the 2012 Presidential election. On the other, they risk alienating the international community, and fragmenting the delicate coalition, if action is escalated to a degree seen to be beyond the scope of UN Resolution 1973.
With the dispatch of advisers, the hope may be that by building the capacity of the rebels, opposition forces may be able to finally dislodge Gaddafi. This is an uncertain strategy; rebel troops have substantial ‘capacity gaps’ and it is not clear that thirty or so military advisers will be able to adequately address them quickly, if they are able to address them at all. Equally, although the presence of various allied special forces units in the country is an open secret, they do not possess the sheer mass required to tip the balance; this is not their purpose in the first place.
It might be the hope of policy makers that such troops can enable more accurate and effective air strikes by assisting with targeting. It is still very problematic for a fighter bomber to neutralise snipers without a dramatic increase in civilian casualties and further destruction of civilian infrastructure.
Finally, as Paul Rogers notes in his column, there is the risk that the regime will switch to asymmetric methods involving paramilitary forces and guerrilla warfare. Such an approach would make the military advisers, special forces and any other ‘boots on the ground’ hostages to fortune more than ever. In particular, the UK general public have had nearly a decade of coffins arriving in Wooton Bassett from wars that seem to have achieved very little. It is unlikely they will blithely accept David Cameron taking the country into a similar, open-ended venture with no exit strategy.
Syria on the brink as Assad ends emergency rule
In the latest concession by the Damascus regime, on Thursday Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad ratified the end of 48 years of emergency rule. First instituted following the 1963 coup that brought the Ba’ath party to power, the decision to lift emergency rule is seen as another indicator that the current challenge to the regime is the most serious in its history. It follows a string of other compromises, including the installation of a new government, the release of political prisoners, the sacking of local officials and the granting of citizenship to Syria’s Kurdish minority.
The 40,000 protesters marching in Damascus on Friday seemed unmoved, and are still calling to end to the regime. The state has combined these concessions with a brutal crackdown, and sixteen people are reported dead and dozens wounded as security forces opened fire on the crowd. This brings the total death toll since the protests began a month ago to over 200. The respected middle east commentator Robert Fisk has suggested that the only thing that can save the regime is if Assad clamps down on corrupt members of his own family, particularly his uncle. If the president is unable or unwilling to do so, it seems that the Ba’ath party may become the latest casualty of the Arab Spring.
Widespread ethnic violence continues in Bangladesh
Last Sunday, six indigenous villages in the restive Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) of Bangladesh were attacked by rampaging Bengali settlers, killing four and injuring dozens more. Two of the slain were burned to death inside their home. The settlers burned a total of 98 structures to the ground. These included homes, shops and two Buddhist temples and their inhabitants are currently still in hiding in the jungle, where they have scant access to medical and food supplies.
Some emergency aid has been distributed to the victims, despite the reported protests of local military officials. It is suggested that the attack, which occurred at the time of the traditional indigenous festival of Bizu, was carried out in the presence of security forces who failed to intervene. The Inter Services Public Relations service of the Bangladesh military has issued a press release stating that the violence was caused when indigenous people attacked innocent Bengali settlers. The indigenous political party Parbatya Chattagram Jana Samhati Samiti (PCJSS) has filed formal protests with the government.
Its president, Jyotirindra Larma, has called for an immediate inquiry. In addition, the PCJSS has called for the end of Operation Uttoron, an ongoing military measure that constitutes what is effectively military rule within the CHT. They have also renewed demands for the implementation of the 1997 CHT Peace Accord, the agreement signed between the government of Bangladesh and the PCJSS and its military wing, the Shanti Bahini, that ended over twenty years of guerrilla war in the region.