On Thursday Jiang Yu, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, endorsed renewed diplomatic efforts as being the best means for resolving the ongoing dispute surrounding Iran’s nuclear programme. Speaking to reporters in Beijing, Yu claimed 'sanctions…are not the way to solve problems.’ Within the next 24 hours, the IAEA had confirmed that Iran had on Monday disclosed the existence of a second enrichment facility, referring to it as a ‘pilot’ project.
President Obama, together with Prime Minister Gordon Brown and French President Nicholas Sarkozy, accused Iran of having kept the existence of this second facility secret from the international community. The extraordinary joint statement was issued at a press conference in Pittsburgh on Friday, ahead of the G20 summit in the city. American officials claim that, far from being a recently established project, the second installation has been monitored by Western intelligence agencies for years without its existence being declared to the IAEA. They also claim that it was the Iranian government’s discovery that Western intelligence agencies were aware of the site which led to Monday’s disclosure. The three leaders have demanded that the installation is immediately opened to IAEA inspections. President Sarkozy issued Iran a two month deadline to comply with international standards or else face tougher sanctions.
In a further revelation that could undermine Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s claims that the Iranian nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only, an Iranian exile group announced on Thursday that they had identified two sites where Iran is researching high explosive triggers used in nuclear weapons. Mehdi Abrishamchi, a senior member of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), said that Tehran is very close to being able to produce detonators for use in nuclear bombs.
The ToD verdict: It was unsurprising, given Barack Obama’s recent abandonment of plans for a European missile shield, that Russian President Medvedev’s position on imposing additional sanctions on Iran appeared to harden at the UN. Lacking any such leverage with China, the challenges the US face persuading Beijing to support tougher sanctions seemed almost insurmountable. Trade between Iran and China is booming and Tehran is the largest supplier of oil to the energy-hungry Chinese economy.
Western powers will hope Monday’s disclosure of a second enrichment facility will add to pressure on China to toughen its line with Iran. As yet the PRC have yet to comment on whether this latest apparent act of Iranian deception will affect its stance towards sanctions. However, with three permanent members of the UN Security Council so publicly staking political capital on a robust stance towards Tehran, and with German Chancellor Angela Merkel also adding her support, the pressure on China to yield will be considerable.
Chinese President Hu Jintao has, however, another factor to consider. Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu’s speech at the UN on Thursday was uncompromising, claiming ‘history could be reversed if primitive fanaticism acquires deadly weapons.’ Netanyahu implicitly raised the spectre of Israeli unilateral action to remove Iran’s nuclear capability. With Monday’s disclosure, Israeli public opinion is likely to become even less forgiving, making the prospect of a pre-emptive strike on Iran by the IDF increasingly feasible politically. With all eyes on China, Hu Jintao may decide that, when choosing between evils, tougher sanctions are preferable to a potentially devastating, and economically disruptive, conflagration in the Persian Gulf.
ISAF Commander denies rift with White House
General Stanley McChrystal, commander of all US forces in Afghanistan and NATO's ISAF force, has publicly denied that there is a rift between the military and the White House over troop levels. Having warned in his recent report to Washington policy makers that there is a real risk of losing the war, analysts widely expect him to request a further increase in force levels in addition to the 30,000 troops dispatched to Afghanistan since May. There is speculation that the supplemental reinforcements he requests may number as many as 40,000.
President Obama has so far been reluctant to discuss force levels, emphasising the need to first ensure that the correct strategy is being followed, a position that General McChrystal endorsed in a telephone interview with the New York Times. US domestic politics are a key factor, with several Democratic congressmen having recently come out in opposition to sending additional troops. Most prominently, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi claimed that raising troop levels further would not be acceptable to the American people or Congress. The opposition from within his own party reflects the growing uneasiness regarding the war in Afghanistan felt by American voters, which President Obama will have to overcome if he does in the end choose to order further reinforcements.
Gen McChrystal’s assurances, which include a denial that he had ever considered resigning from his post, come on the same day that five US soldiers were killed in Afghanistan. The deaths occurred in three separate attacks, all in the south of the country. Three troops were killed by a roadside bomb, one was shot by militants and the fifth was killed when his patrol came under attack.
Talks to solve Honduras political crisis begin
On Thursday, the former president of Honduras, Manuel Zelaya, confirmed that talks had begun with the interim government to resolve the political crisis triggered by his exile from the country following a coup in June 2009. Holed up in the Brazillian embassy in the Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa, Zelaya said that, although he had enough support within the Honduran military to secure his return to power, the use of violence would not be necessary.
Zelaya has not moved from the embassy since he stole back into the country on 21 September. The fact that he was able to do so without detection is seen by analysts as proof that he does indeed still retain the support of factions in the Honduran military and security services. His popular following is evidenced by the thousands of supporters that gathered at the embassy on hearing news of his return. At least one supporter has been reported killed and several wounded in clashes with the police which have seen over 100 people detained.