Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov appeared to rule out further sanctions against Iran at a UN Security Council meeting on Thursday, instead placing his faithin the latest set of diplomatic proposals offered to European nations by Iran regarding its nuclear programme. Discussing the positive role Iran has to play in Iraq and Afghanistan, Lavrov stated that Iran's proposals represent a good basis for negotiations to resolve the ongoing dispute over its nuclear programme.
Commentators have inferred that Russia is now unlikely to support new sanctions, particularly those that target energy supplies which Lavrov criticised as ‘not a mechanism to force Iran to cooperate', in the forthcoming debate among the EU3, China, Russia and the United States. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia has the power to veto any such action.
The ToD Verdict: The comments by Russia's foreign minister have begun what is likely to be a protracted and painful set of negotiations between the major powers about how to react to Iran's latest proposals. The fact that Russian and Chinese opposition to taking a hard line has been anticipated for weeks will not make it an easier hurdle for the US to overcome. Both countries have substantial ties with Iran, with trade between Russia and Iran exceeding $1 billion annually and Iran providing a vital source of oil for China.
Iran's proposals, which speak of its potential positive role in the world, mentioned no specifics regarding its nuclear programme and come after Ali Asghar Soltanieh, Iran's chief negotiator with the IAEA, categorically ruled out any further negotiations with the major powers regarding Tehran's nuclear ambitions. The proposals do speak of a desire for ‘global disarmament' which analysts are interpreting as an Iranian attempt to create linkage between its own nuclear programme and Israel's undeclared nuclear weapons arsenal.
A failure to implement new sanctions in the face of Iran's stated refusal to compromise over its nuclear programme will provide Obama's domestic political opponents an opportunity to attack his more conciliatory, and so far fruitless, diplomatic stance, as well as being a source of considerable concern for Israel.
The foreign minister's stance should result in hard questions being asked about the wisdom of pursuing a confrontational approach with Iran.
His reference to Iraq and Afghanistan may cause policy makers in Washington to wince, if only because they are equally aware of the leverage Iran wields, particularly in southern Iraq. The reduction in violence in Iraq in recent years has been to a significant degree attributable to the restraint of Muqtada al Sadr's Mehdi Army, one of two crucial Shi'a factions. Many analysts attribute this restraint to Iranian pressure. Equally, Iranian influence in Afghanistan, particularly in the Dari-speaking western region centred on Herat, is significant. At a time of continuing uncertainty in Mesopotamia and in the face of an Afghanistan policy critically burdened by heightened casualties and a flawed election, it is far from certain that the US can afford to further antagonise Iran.
Pakistan Taliban leader arrested
Muslim Khan, a leading spokesman for the Pakistan Taliban in the Swat Valley, has been successfully apprehended on Friday by the Pakistani authorities, the BBC reported. Aside from his position as a spokesman, Khan is also regarded as one of the Pakistan Taliban's most senior field commanders. One of the four other men arrested with him, Mahmood Khan, is also considered a key figure within the Swat Valley Taliban leadership.
Their capture represents a significant boon to the Pakistan government, whose conventional military successes against the Taliban in Swat over recent months suffered from some criticism for failing to kill or capture senior members of the militants' leadership. The whereabouts of Maulana Fazlullah, the leader of the Taliban in Swat, are still unknown.
Riots strike Kampala
Disputes over some of Uganda's prime farmland have led to two days of riots in the capital Kampala. The unrest, which began on Thursday and continued throughout the following day, has so far led to the deaths of six protesters. Police spokesperson Judith Nabakoba refuted claims that the Ugandan security forces used excessive force, despite eyewitness reports that protestors were killed by direct gunfire from government forces in armoured personnel carriers.
The violence was sparked by the attempt of Prime Minister, or Katikiro, of the traditional kingdom of Buganda to visit the town of Kayunga after being barred from doing so by police. Locals of Kayunga have accused different ethnic groups of taking over farmland historically considered to be part of the kingdom. The Katikiro.
Buganda is one of Uganda's four ancient kingdoms. They were abolished by President Milton Obote in 1966 but President Yoweri Museveni restored nominal recognition to their kings in the 1990s. These ceremonial leaders enjoy a lingering legitimacy among their traditional subjects. Analysts are predicting that the planned visit of the king of Buganda, Kabaka Ronald Mutebi, to the flashpoint town of Kayunga will result in renewed bloodshed.
Democrats question Afghan surge
US President Barack Obama came under sustained pressure on Thursday from his own party regarding America's military commitment in Afghanistan. Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, claimed there would be little support for sending additional troops to Afghanistan among the public or the legislature. As head of the Democrat-controlled lower house and second in the line of constitutional succession after the Vice-President, her comments are a clear indication that any attempt to further bolster US troop strength in Afghanistan will meet with substantial congressional opposition.
Her comments were echoed by Democratic Congressman Jim Moran, who said that the focus should be on pursuing a better strategy. Congressman Moran stated ‘the military presence clearly is a problem in itself.' Obama's decision to increase troop levels to 68,000, which will be achieved by the end of the year, attracted criticism from Human Rights groups and humanitarian organisations, including Oxfam, who argue that such an increase was likely to simply result in more violence and a concomitant increase in civilian deaths, which would further fuel the insurgency.
Lebanon-based rockets strike Israel
Israel was today the target of two Katyusha rockets fired from the village of Qalayiya in Southern Lebanon. They struck Nahariya in Israel's Western Galilee, with reports of an electricity tower being hit. The IDF responded with retaliatory missile fire into Lebanon. No-one has been reported killed in either attack. Although Katyusha rockets comprise the staple of Hizbollah's missile arsenal, the Shi'ite guerrilla force has yet to claim responsibility for the attack.