On the second day of its long-anticipated offensive into Taliban-controlled territory, the US military has sustained its first casualties. One US marine was killed and several others injured during combat operations in Helmand province, located in the south of Afghanistan. In what is the largest US marine offensive since the Vietnam War, nearly 4,000 marines, backed by NATO aircraft and troops belonging to the Afghan National Army, began advancing into Helmand on Thursday. In contrast to previous actions, the strategy this time is to take and hold territory, denying it to the Taliban insurgents.
The toD verdict: A strong military offensive in Afghanistan has been predicted for some time by analysts. Many commentators have pointed to the discrepancy in force levels between Iraq and Afghanistan as being a key reason for the Taliban's resurgence and that an Afghan "surge" would recreate the apparent success that General David Petraeus' efforts achieved in Baghdad last year.
But there is the fear, expressed by international aid agencies, humanitarian organisations and academics, that this will simply place the lives of Afghan civilians in further jeopardy. According to this interpretation, an increase in boots on the ground and a heightened intensity in combat operations will lead to more civilian deaths, which will in turn fuel the insurgency in an escalating cycle of violence; there is no wholly military solution to the Afghan quagmire. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle. Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here
Such fears may have been allayed slightly by the recent comments of the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen. Admiral Mullen, speaking to Al Jazeera, said that he envisaged the Taliban eventually joining the political process. This is a radical and welcome departure in thinking from the Bush administration. But there will need to be diplomatic initiatives to back the military offensive; as is the case with much of the Obama administration's rhetoric, there will need to be substance as well as style.
North Korea launches missiles
On Thursday, South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported that the DPRK had test-fired four short-range missiles from Sinsang-ni, near the eastern coastal city of Wonsan. It is suggested by some sources that they landed about 100 km off North Korea's coast, where the communist regime imposed a maritime ban for military exercises, in effect between 25 June and 10 July.
According to US and Japanese intelligence sources, it is feared that these launches may be a prelude to the test-firing of North Korea's most sophisticated inter-continental ballistic missile, the Taepodong-2. This would be in defiance of UN Resolution 1718, which was imposed after the North conducted its first nuclear test on 9 October, 2006. It is even feared that this test may entail the missile being targeted at Hawaii, though on Thursday the South Korean media said that there was no indication of a missile test in the near future.
Iran set to try UK embassy staff
Speaking on Friday, the Chairman of Iran's Guardian Council Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati said that UK embassy staff currently in detention in Iran will face trial. Nine locally recruited embassy staff were detained last weekend, accused of inciting protests in the wake of Iran's disputed presidential elections. According to the UK government, all but two have been released.
Speaking to thousands of worshippers at Friday prayers, Ayatollah Jannati said of the detained staff: "Naturally they will be put on trial, they have made confessions." He went on to blame the protests, described by analysts as representing the most serious challenge to the power of the Iranian state since the 1979 revolution, as being the result of foreign intervention, saying that, after the election, "The enemy made an effort to poison the people." The UK has maintained its stance that such accusations are baseless.
Ban Ki Moon to pressure Myanmar generals
On his visit to Myanmar, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has so far been barred from visiting imprisoned dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi. He emerged from a meeting with the leader of the military junta that controls Myanmar, Than Shwe, to tell reporters that the general's response to his request to see her face to face had been non-committal, saying, "I am awaiting... their consideration and reply." The 76-year old Than Shwe has led the current regime for the past 17 years.
The Secretary-General's visit has been the subject of controversy, with critics saying that it legitimises Suu Kyi's trial, which has now been postponed until 10 July. The trial itself has been decried by critics as a sham, designed to keep the dissident leader behind bars ahead of Myanmar's multi-party elections due to be held next year. Ban has called for a release of all political prisoners ahead of the elections, which he has said should be a "credible, fair and inclusive, and...legitimate." Suu Kyi has spent 14 of the past 20 years in detention.
Israeli demonstrates strategic reach as sub transits Suez
On Friday, defence sources revealed that an Israeli Dolphin class submarine had transited Suez to the Red Sea in an unusual manoeuvre that analysts are describing as a show of force directed at Iran. Israeli submarines usually move from the Mediterranean to the Red Sea and vice versa by sailing around the Horn of Africa, beyond the reach of Egyptian intelligence forces. This latest move is thought to be a clear display of Israel's capability to retaliate in the event of an Iranian nuclear attack.
The German manufactured Dolphin class boats were delivered to Israel in 1999 in a move that was widely heralded as securing Israel's second strike capability. Although originally designed to carry the AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missile, which carries a conventional warhead, there is consensus among analysts, based on what little open-source material there is, that the Israelis have been able to use the Dolphins as a platform for the Popeye Turbo, which can carry a nuclear warhead. In addition, in 2003 it was reported that Israel has been able to modify standard Harpoon missiles to carry nuclear payloads.