One of Britain's leading diplomats has warned that a row between the United States and Afghanistan over last week's presidential elections could serve to undermine the entire process and actively aid the Taliban. The argument, according to the BBC, took place on 21 August between incumbent President Hamid Karzai and US Special Representative Richard Holbrooke and concerned suspected ballot-box stuffing and fraud during the vote. Mr Holbrooke's repeated recommendation that a second round run-off would make the election more credible led to what senior sources describe as a ‘bust up' between the two men.
Lord Ashdown, a former envoy to Bosnia, attacked foreign criticism of the elections since ‘the people this is likely to help most are the Taliban themselves.' Emphasising the need to follow established procedures and laws regarding disputed elections, he said that ‘it would be far better, at least in the first instance, to let the Afghan procedures with UN support run their course before jumping to conclusions.'
Concerns over the Afghanistan elections, although centring on fraud, also extend to turnout with only 150 people reportedly voting in one region with a population of 155,000. Though the British Foreign Office has described these reports as ‘anecdotal', the official estimate of voter turnout is 40 - 50%, which would represent a significant decrease compared with the 70% rate for the previous election.
The toD verdict: Embedding democracy in Afghanistan is the ostensible reason for a fresh commitment of US troops and a renewed offensive against Taliban positions in Helmand province. The notion that Afghan democracy is corrupt may, accordingly, cause considerable political damage in the United States. American voters, conscious of the rising casualty figures resulting from this new commitment and mindful of the despotic Saigon regime that the US sought to defend in Vietnam, may become convinced that the Kabul government is simply not worth saving.
This domestic political consideration may have been what caused Holbrooke's intervention on 21 August. However, as Lord Ashdown emphasised, Afghanistan has measures in place to deal with alleged electoral fraud, and Holbrooke's apparent dismissal of the Afghan government's own laws will add weight to the conviction, already felt by many Afghans, that Karzai is simply a US puppet.
Notwithstanding a recent report that Afghan civilian casualties have been much reduced by the vaunted new tactical directive issued by commander of US and NATO forces General Stanley McChrystal, the government legitimacy crisis, partly due to its association with occupying military forces, is very much apparent. The sharp fall in voter turnout is a grim reflection of the fact that the Kabul government is not felt to be relevant in much of the country.
A report from the International Council on Security and Development published in December 2008 stated that the Taliban had a permanent presence in 72% of the country. The low voter turnouts reflect the fact that, particularly across wide swathes of the south and south-east, the Taliban is regarded as the de facto governing power. Holbrooke's intervention may well exacerbate this already acute crisis of legitimacy.
Tens of thousands of refugees flee to China as violence erupts in Burma
On Friday China's state media were reporting that over 30,000 people had fled over the border from Burma to China's Yunnan province in the wake of a sudden outbreak of violence between Burmese government forces and a militant indigenous group. According to the US Campaign for Burma, the violence was precipitated by the deployment of troops in the region and has led to the end of a ceasefire which held for twenty years. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has estimated that 30,000 people have fled from Kokang, in Burma's remote north eastern Shan state.
China has urged the Burmese government to do everything it can, both to secure the stability of its borders and to protect the security of Chinese citizens as the Shan state is home to a large number of ethnic Chinese communities and Chinese nationals. At least one Chinese expert has predicted that Burmese attempts to impose government control over the region may lead to a wider conflict.
Released Guantanamo inmate to sue US
The legal team of Mohammad Jawad have announced that he will be suing the US Government for his incarceration in the Guantanamo Bay prison facility in Cuba seven years ago. Jawad, who was released earlier in the week, was detained in 2002 for injuring two US soldiers and an interpreter by throwing a grenade at their vehicle. Jawad's family claims he was twelve when he was detained, the Pentagon claims that a bone scan proves he was seventeen. Jawad has no birth certificate. Jawad's family and lawyers allege that he was subject to torture during his detention.
Much of the case against him was ruled inadmissible by a US military judge in 2008, but his release was only ordered last month by US District Court Judge Ellen Huvelle. Judge Huvelle described the case as ‘an outrage' and ‘full of holes'. Major Eric Montalvo, Jawad's lawyer, has said that not to give Jawad any compensation at this point would be ‘unacceptable'.