An OurKingdom symposium: see also articles by Gerry Hassan, James Mitchell and David Torrance
It seemed unlikely that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling would be hounded out of office by the English mob, like Brown's predecessor Lord Bute, but for a moment in 2006 Alan Duncan looked like he might be a modern day John Wilkes. He was quickly slapped down. Since that time there has been a grumbling English discontent - articulated most forcefully by the likes of Simon Heffer, David Starkey and Kelvin MacKenzie - but the Tories themselves have resisted the temptation to play the English card and have not made an issue of Gordon Brown's Scottishness, or more specifically his lack of mandate on English domestic issues.
Soon though, baring divine intervention, the boot will be on the other foot; soon it will be Scotland that is ruled by a man they have not elected, who is not one of theirs, and who to them has no mandate. Step forward David Cameron to deliver the acid test of devolution. It was the democratic deficit of the Thatcher and Major years that provided the unionist rationale for Scottish devolution: Why should Scotland put up with a right-wing Tory government, and an English one at that, when Scotland consistently voted left-of-centre? If the devolution theorists are correct then the devolved Scottish Parliament should buffer Scotland from the worst excesses of English Conservatism and mollify the nationalist impulse. But there's a fly in the ointment, some Scots, most Scots in fact, are saying that devolution doesn't go far enough. They want a referendum and more powers, especially enhanced fiscal powers, and David Cameron doesn't want that. Respect, yes; powers to tax and spend, no! At least not yet, not now.
David Cameron is English, he's posh, he only has one Scottish MP, and he's a Tory. On paper he's an easier quarry for Alex Salmond than Gordon Brown is. But Salmond is a wily character, and he doesn't want the SNP to be the nasty party, so just as the Tories refrained from attacking Brown on grounds of his Scottishness, the SNP will most likely refrain from attacking Cameron's Englishness and class. This leaves Cameron's 'Tory-ness' and his lack of a Scottish mandate as the best grounds for attack, but then an attack on Cameron's Tory-ness may sound too much like the class-warfare and anti-Englishness of old, and may well alienate the Scottish voters that the SNP most wants to attract - those looking to cast their vote tactically against Labour. So Salmond's best tactic will be to point to Cameron's lack of Scottish support. Taking the best possible Conservative case-scenario that has presented itself so far (YouGov, 8th - 9th October 2009; Lab 34%, SNP 28%, Con 22%, Lib Dem 10%) the Conservatives could capitalise on the collapse of the Labour vote by picking up 7 Scottish MPs in 2010. However, this really is a best-case-scenario, for all their superior resources the Tories will find it tough campaigning in Scotland where they have failed to sanitise the Conservative brand to the extent they have in England and Wales.
George Osborne's proposed cuts in public spending will hit Scotland disproportionately hard, and hard hit too will be Scotland's representation at Westminster, delivered a double whammy of cuts through boundary changes and then enfeebled by English Votes on English Laws. "Vote Tory at the General Election and I won't be able to vote at Westminster" is not necessarily a good election slogan for doorstepping Tory candidates. On English Votes on English Laws the Tories may find that they have an ally in Alex Salmond, a man keen to see Scots side-lined at Westminster, though they may also find that it is Salmond who is the unlikely champion of England's cause. Worst of all, the Tories in Scotland have to explain their position on the Calman Commission, and they're not too sure what that position is. And the Tories in England don't particularly want the English to read in their papers about more Scottish devolution, lest they begin asking their own 'English Question'.
The issue of Scottish (and English) sovereignty will be useful political football for Salmond because he knows that none of the answers that are constitutionally coherent are politically acceptable to his opponents. In regard to his upcoming tete-a-tetes with Cameron, it is not so much the formal legal sovereignty of independence that should concern Salmond; it is popular sovereignty, the will of the Scottish people, a political force that could be used to devastating effect against an English Conservative government. The Panorama programme "Will the Scots Ever be Happy?" contained an exchange between Salmond and Cameron - a foretaste of the battles to come between Holyrood and Westminster? - and illustrated how I think Salmond will play his cards (Mr Reasonable vs Mr English-Arrogance).
David Cameron: "Just as I respect the ability of the Scottish Parliament to say on tuition fees, or whatever, "we take a different view", likewise the argument goes the other way; that if the government at Westminster has a mandate to deliver issues to do with nuclear deterrents or the size of the army, or whatever, then they should be able to do that without the Scottish Government trying to obstruct them.
My party, for instance, supports Britain having a nuclear deterrent that is independent, that's important, and that's a mandate, if elected, that we will have to deliver."
Alex Salmond: "The idea that you can base a new generation of nuclear missiles in Scotland and not talk or listen to the Scottish people about it is ridiculous...if the argument is to 'treat Scotland with respect', then it must be translated into more than just rhetoric, it must be reflected in deeds whoever is prime minister."
Pundits will inevitably focus on Scottish attitudes to Cameron, the Conservatives, England and the Union. But what will the English make of the power struggle between Holyrood and Westminster and the constant nationalist agitation to the north? Alex Massie, writing in the Spectator, believes that the strength of Tory Scotland will be an important factor:
12 years on from being wiped out in 1997, they [the Scottish Conservatives] need to make significant gains to remind English conservatives that Scotland - and the Union - remains worth fighting for. The party leadership seems to think so - Fox, Gove, Osborne and Cameron are all speaking here this week - but the English grassroots are not so sure. That being so, it would be useful if the Scottish Tories were able to do more to pull their weight...
If the Tories do fail to make gains in Scotland then they really are in trouble. It will be hard enough having to limp along with David 'Man Dull' Mundell as Secretary of State for Scotland, but if he is the only one, or if only a couple of Scottish Tories are added to his number, then overdue attention to Scottish sensibilities will be difficult for English Conservatives to sustain, and difficult for the English public to stomach. The tail must not be seen to be wagging the dog.