Ever since Putin invaded Ukraine last year, people have been asking why Russians are not outside protesting against the war.
Firstly, it’s worth pointing out that there has been plenty of opposition – more than 21,000 arrests and 370 prosecutions were recorded for anti-war statements in 2022 and this week independent Russian media outlets including Meduza and Mediazona ran a media marathon day to raise money for political prisoners.
But you won’t see large crowds of people demonstrating on the streets of Moscow or St Petersburg. For an observer not immersed in Russian reality, this could suggest that the population en masse supports the war. But for Russians themselves, the question of protest in the repressive totalitarian state in which they now find themselves seems irrelevant.
I’m a sociologist who first took part in a research project about immigration from Russia after March 2022, in which we interviewed around 100 people. More recently, I conducted a dozen informal interviews with Russians in Russia who oppose the war, asking them why they did not attend the protests in support of Aexei Navalny on 4 June 2023, or other protests. The results of these interviews suggest that there are eight main reasons why people aren’t protesting. Here they are.
1. Being arrested is only the start
Dissenting Russians don’t see any opportunity to protest, and not only because they are afraid of spending time in a pre-trial detention centre (15 days is the norm for a first arrest). They are afraid of beatings, violence, humiliation, long prison terms, having their children taken from them, losing their job, and confronting authorities who refuse to issue passports and other essential documents.
This situation is aggravated by the fact that after mobilisation was announced last September, Russia’s already demographically skewed gender ratio has worsened. Many men were either drafted or fled the country, while women remained – so they are now responsible for looking after both children and the elderly. If they protest, it will cause major problems for the whole family.
Also, mass protests of various kinds have been held in Russia every year since 2011 – to little effect. There have been demonstrations against the 2021 legislative election results; a series of large-scale rallies demanding the end of government corruption; environmental protests; and marches in support of regional governor Sergei Furgal and opposition leader Alexei Navalny (both of whom are now in prison), to name just a few.
After 2018, public demonstrations became almost impossible due to increased repression, but still continued. Now, those who protest on the street face a high probability of imprisonment, torture and cruel treatment, as well as dismissal from work and indirect reprisals against loved ones.
2. Electronic tracking systems
Interviewees said it’s not that they can’t or don’t want to go out to protest, but they’re unlikely to even get there: they will be stopped on the way, recognised by cameras in the subway, phone operators will give information on their movements to the security forces, and so on. Even if they’re not stopped and arrested immediately, they face a high probability of delayed consequences. Video recordings and facial-recognition systems allow law enforcement to track down participants after the street action has ended.
The pandemic allowed the authorities to perfect the tracking and control of their citizens under the guise of fighting Covid – digital totalitarianism, in other words. They also increased the use of artificial intelligence and facial-recognition technology, further restricting the freedoms and rights of the population.
From the outside, it may seem that in the modern world, with the widespread use of social media and other ways to connect online, it’s simple and straightforward to organise a protest and encourage people to take to the streets. But not in Russia.
Here, messaging apps are hacked and read by the security services, so people avoid relaying sensitive information on social media. Or they switch to what we call ‘Aesopian language’ – a term that became particularly prevalent in Soviet times and means to encrypt language to evade censorship.
This makes it more difficult to coordinate protests or fully inform people about upcoming events. Any steps against the state, even virtual ones, are effectively suppressed, thanks to the increased control allowed by digital technology. All this affects daily life, and the behaviour of dissenting Russians who have remained in the country since the invasion last year.
3. No one will help
This state of intimidation is not about apathy or a lack of willingness to protest. The lack of examples of victory over the system matters. Look at Alexei Navalny – he is famous around the world, but did anyone manage to release him from prison? No. If no one comes to help public figures, what will happen to ordinary citizens? How will their loved ones survive? People try to hold on to a feeling that their life is acceptable and not to lose what little they have.
4. Protests don’t change anything
The people I interviewed said in today’s Russia, protests are useless. The security forces are huge (according to estimates by independent Russian media outlet Proekt, some 2.6 million people are employed by law enforcement agencies). Without the ability to unite, out of fear of becoming an outcast or ruining their own life, people choose to stay at home. You can hold a protest, but it will not lead to anything changing, except for serious consequences for the individual.
5. Feeling isolated
It’s not easy to leave Russia, which is partly why so many have stayed. And those who tried and returned have experienced problems: their bank card has been blocked, they have been denied a visa or residence permit or they’ve lost employment and therefore their means of subsistence.
Because of the difficulties they faced when abroad, some Russians feel abandoned by the outside world. It seems that all that remains is to hold on to their life in Russia, however imperfect it may be. The majority of the people I spoke to do not think their life can be improved by protesting, but it can certainly be completely ruined if they do protest.
6. Dependence on the state
The number of Russians dependent on payments from the state, as employees or beneficiaries, totalled more than 60 million in 2021 – 42% of the country's population. If someone participates in a protest and is sacked from their job as a result, they will be left without work and without the possibility of finding work, since the non-state sector is in dire straits. The supposedly independent businesses that do remain, as a rule, still depend indirectly on the state budget.
7. Departure of the most active protesters
A significant number of people who used to take part in protests have left Russia. This has changed things. No one knows for sure how many hundreds of thousands have left, or how many have returned. But those who have left include people who attended protests about freedom, self-expression and upholding democratic values. Their absence in the country is making itself felt.
8. Distrust of the opposition
The Russian authorities have systematically destroyed opposition leaders: imprisoned them, killed them or forced them to leave the country. Independent journalists have also been locked up or killed. Russians don’t have much confidence in those who remained and survived, since there are no fully fledged political processes in society or a free press.
People don’t see and don’t understand what the remaining opposition is planning, and can’t assess their strength. This means that they believe that, if they attend a protest, they risk becoming one just more vain and senseless victim.
Despite all this, political resistance continues to exist in Russia. On the streets of cities, there are visual protests, anti-war inscriptions and graffiti (which get removed within hours, sometimes even minutes). In interviews, dissenting Russians mention underground exhibitions, anti-war poetry, closed meetings in the apartments of like-minded people, performances and other works of art condemning the war in Ukraine, and volunteers who provide assistance to Ukrainians.
All this is happening, despite the fear of being arrested and sent to prison. To paraphrase the well-known statement of Soviet dissidents: the Russian authorities may crucify freedom, but the human soul knows no shackles.
