In a pivotal election, Georgia’s opposition must look past Russia vs EU

As Georgia approaches pivotal parliamentary elections, the country’s opposition parties stand at a crucial juncture. In recent months, the ruling Georgian Dream party has turned sharply away from its 2021 promise of bringing the country towards the European Union, with critics suggesting it doesn’t want to risk upsetting relations with Russia as Ukraine did. 

In May, the government passed Russian-style legislation that will see Western-backed media organisations and NGOs branded ‘foreign agents’. This led the EU to stop the country’s accession process amid fears the law will be used to crack down on civil society groups. 

The strategy that the opposition parties find in response to this anti-Western turn could determine not just their own political futures, but the trajectory of Georgian democracy itself.

Conventional wisdom suggests that opposition parties should frame October’s election as a referendum on Georgia’s European future, capitalising on strong pro-EU sentiment among voters, around 80% of whom want to join the bloc. But this approach risks overlooking the deeper concerns of many Georgians and playing into the ruling Georgian Dream party’s divisive rhetoric.

Instead, opposition parties would be wise to craft a more comprehensive message centred on restoring proper statehood and competent governance. Many Georgians feel abandoned by a dysfunctional government, as captured by a viral clip of a distraught father exclaiming, after the deadly Shovi flood in the summer 2023: “I couldn’t care less about government or opposition – I just want a state.” This sentiment of desiring a functional state that serves its citizens should be at the core of the opposition’s campaign.

The opposition must counter the Georgian Dream’s nativist messaging, which portrays the party as defenders of peace, national tradition, and sovereignty against foreign interference. One effective approach could be to highlight how the ruling party’s policies are actually tearing Georgian families apart through emigration, as citizens leave in search of better economic opportunities abroad. Well-paid jobs remain scarce. The country’s significant GDP growth as a result of rerouted trade following Russia’s all-out assault on Ukraine in 2022 has primarily benefited a small coterie of insiders. 

On issues that remain contentious in Georgia, like LGBTQ rights, opposition parties should avoid being baited into defensive postures. Instead, they could pivot to inclusive messaging about keeping talented Georgians in the country regardless of their differences. This reframes the debate away from divisive culture war rhetoric and back to core issues of governance and opportunity.

The opposition must also develop compelling counter-narratives to the Georgian Dream's fear-mongering about war. Rather than getting bogged down in complex geopolitical arguments, they could emphasise how the constant drumbeat of war talk from the government itself is frightening citizens, especially children. This strategy, developed by Péter Magyar, a leader of a surging movement opposing Viktor Orbán in Hungary, flips the script and portrays the opposition as those that are seeking to take care of the well-being of citizens, and especially families. 

A unifying story that resonates across demographics is crucial. The opposition parties should emphasise that as a small country in challenging times, Georgia needs everyone to work together. They can position themselves as the force for unity against the ruling party's attempts to divide society.

Importantly, the opposition parties should focus their message on reaching voters who previously supported the Georgian Dream but are now open to alternatives. As in other elections, these “hero voters” who switch allegiances are key to electoral success.

Those who want a better future for Georgia would also be wise to tag the Georgian Dream as the “party of disaster,” highlighting the string of preventable tragedies that have occurred under their watch due to negligence and mismanagement. From the 2015 Tbilisi zoo flooding to the 2022 Gudauri helicopter crash and the 2023 Shovi landslide, a pattern of incompetence and lack of accountability has emerged. By priming voters to recognise this pattern, the opposition can preempt future attempts by the government to deflect responsibility for crises.

There are several pitfalls the opposition parties must avoid to have a chance at victory. Calling for foreign sanctions makes them appear dependent on outside forces. Describing the Georgian Dream as a “Russian government” or “regime” may inadvertently reinforce the ruling party’s intimidation tactics. The opposition should instead portray the ruling party as tired, out of ideas, and incapable of offering a positive future for Georgia.

Additionally, opposition parties must reach beyond their bubble and demonstrate nationwide appeal. They need to convey their determination to prevail, in the face of an uneven playing field and of downright violence and repression. Voters are more likely to back those who show grim resolve to see the fight through to its conclusion, even beyond this election.

For Georgia’s international partners, it’s crucial to recognise the diversity within the opposition rather than treating them as a monolithic bloc. It is better to talk about opposition parties than about “the opposition”. Nuanced criticism is important, acknowledging the immense challenges these parties face in terms of resources and constant pressure from the state.

The stakes in this election extend beyond Georgia’s borders. Once a laboratory for successful reform in the post-Soviet space, Georgia now risks becoming an experiment in how a country can be taken away from its citizens through a slow-rolling institutional coup. 

If opposition parties can prevail against the Georgian Dream’s attempts to consolidate control, it would show that there are compelling models for countering authoritarian playbooks – a signal that many these days are looking for, not just on Europe’s geographic periphery, but increasingly in its core as well.