Tom Griffin (London, OK): If The Scotsman is to be believed, Gordon Brown is set to take the advice of Iain MacWhirter rather than Martin Kettle over the fortcoming by-election in his Fife backyard:
A final decision has not yet been taken, but it is understood Labour leaders favour either Thursday, 30 October or Thursday, 6 November for the contest.
The November date is the favourite simply because it comes only a day after the expected result of the American presidential election, and if Labour was to lose, party managers believe the bad news would be partly buried by the US coverage.
The Guardian tips the headmaster of Brown's old secondary school, Lindsay Roy, to be the Labour candidate:
The local party is expected to choose Labour's candidate on Monday and if he is selected, Roy will face Peter Grant, currently the SNP leader of Fife council. Although he would defend a 10,664 vote majority, he faces a tough task.
The Independent suggests that the by-election is one reason why an early move against Brown is unlikely:
Some backbench critics have not given up hope of persuading cabinet ministers to "ambush" Mr Brown next month by threatening to resign if he does not stand down. They say that such moves would not be advertised in advance as it might give him a chance to pre-empt them, possibly by reshuffling the Cabinet. But they concede that the prospects of an immediate move against him have receded during the holiday season.
Ministers will reassure the critics that they will seek to remove the Prime Minister "in October or November" if he fails to take his last chance. Some are prepared to resign if he refuses to stand down after being told he has lost their confidence.
In the short term, then,the Glenrothes poll may help the Prime Minister's position, but if Labour is defeated there, as many now expect, it could be the trigger for a heave.
