How will Russia’s war in Ukraine develop as we near winter?

“To date, Ukraine has liberated over 54% of Russian-occupied Ukraine and they continue to retain the strategic advantage.” That was the message from General Mark Milley, chair of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, at a recent meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contacts Group (UDCG) in Germany.

If that sounded as if victory was imminent, Milley also stressed that the war would continue through the winter and until Russia was defeated.

One of the problems for analysts is that such a statement, as well as claims from Russian sources, make it difficult to assess what is really happening on the ground. Strictly speaking, Milley is correct that Ukraine maintains the advantage, but the country’s autumn offensive is proving far more difficult than expected and the war is far from over. Analysts now expect it to continue through 2024 and into 2025, with its outcome depending largely on whether Joe Biden is re-elected in the US next November.

In one sense, Milley’s statement provides a valid explanation for this apparent contradiction. Back in the first month of the war, Russian forces made rapid advances, despite being poorly equipped and trained and, with few exceptions, badly led. They had the advantage of having many tens of thousands of troops thrown into the fray, but any apparent success did not last long.

Aided by comprehensive access to US intelligence capabilities, Ukrainian forces reacted with considerable speed to take back large swathes of territory, including towns of villages uncomfortably close to the capital, Kyiv. By May last year, they were also recapturing land from Russia towards eastern Ukraine, including districts in the southeast that had been the site of fighting ever since 2015.

Since then, the conflict has evolved into a violent stalemate, with Russia able to threaten escalation if losing, while Ukraine knows that NATO’s whole reputation is now at stake and that it simply will not countenance defeat.

For Ukraine, a priority is to find new ways to weaken Putin’s position, with Crimea becoming a major means to that end

A marker for the current state of the war is that one of Ukraine’s immediate requirements is to seek ways of building its own weapons outside the country, responding to Russian air and drone strikes against its arms factories. It can develop weapons such as an automated boat, the Magura V5, and also the Punisher armed drone, but is looking to Western companies to make them.

The huge Defence and Security Equipment International (DSEI) arms fair in London last month provided an opportunity for Ukraine to do just this. A recent report in the US military journal Defense One highlighted the disparities between Ukraine’s military industries and some of the world’s largest arms companies.

The basic deal, as envisioned by Ukrainian government officials, is that foreign companies would get access to cheap and innovative Ukrainian designs while Ukraine would secure arms factories in countries safe from Russian missile strikes.

Just across from Ukraine’s stand at DSEI stood the glossy booths of defence giant BAE, whose hulking armoured troop transports, winged drones, and cannons, showed what the world’s leading economies could get for their money. 

Ukraine’s stand, by contrast, was more modest.

An early partner in such a venture may be Lithuania, Defense One suggested. But as this kind of operation evolves, it will be yet one more ‘proof’ that Vladimir Putin can use to convince his own people that the might of NATO is waged against them, as he has claimed from the start.

Putin’s forces may be maintaining pressure on Ukraine’s arms industry through its persistent missile and drone attacks, and its reconstituted and comprehensive defensive systems are giving Ukrainian armed forces substantial problems. But to do so, Russia is having to spend heavily on the war, which currently accounts for close to 40% of all its public spending. There is little reliable information on the level of domestic support for the Putin regime, but the indicators are that it is holding up, particularly among older Russians who well remember the contempt that many Western politicians and commentators had for Russia after the Soviet collapse. These groups have long seen NATO as the real enemy.

For Ukraine, meanwhile, a priority is to find new ways to weaken Putin’s position, with Crimea becoming a major means to that end. The many air bases on the peninsula, coupled with the huge naval complex, have been critical for Russia in projecting power and influence since the Cold War. As the only significant warm water port for the entire Russian Navy, it was built up into a very substantial base. To lose it would be a serious problem for Putin, hence Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyi’s constant demands for longer-range cruise and ballistic missiles from the West to keep up the pressure.

That is now having such an impact that Crimea is seen as so vulnerable that Russia’s influence in the Black Sea and beyond is being compromised. As a result, the Kremlin plans to develop a naval base in the east of the Black Sea – close to the coastal town of Ochamchira in the breakaway Georgian territory of Abkhazia – out of range of most current Ukraine drones and missiles. There was a Cold War-era naval facility in Abkhazia, which is currently a coal export port with rail connections north into Russia. To turn it into a substantial naval base would be no mean feat, so doing so would be a clear indication that Russia is planning for a stalemate with Ukraine that could last for years.

So, 20 months into the war, Ukraine aims to have its arms built abroad, away from Russian missiles and drones, while Russia looks to establish a new naval base away from Crimea for the same reason. The era of remote warfare is very much with us, while the killing on the ground continues, as seen with the scores of people killed and injured in a Russian attack on the village of Hroza, near Kharkiv, this week.

Meanwhile, as ever, the world’s armourers thrive and reap their profits. Selling death is the name of the game and in that respect, it’s ‘boom time’ in both senses of the phrase.