There’s now no doubt that the US is preparing for war with Iran

US and Israeli leaders have celebrated this week’s death of Hamas military commander Yahya Sinwar. But while attention is focused on what it means for Gaza and the unlikely possibility of a ceasefire – few have noticed what this means for the much wider US-Iran war.

The US has, of course, put its military might, money and rhetoric behind Israel in its devastating operations in Gaza since last October. More specifically, the US even has a little-noticed permanent military presence in Israel itself – an advanced long-range over-the-horizon X-Band Radar system in the Negev. It is believed to be particularly effective against Iranian medium-range ballistic missiles. 

But this week, two recent developments point to the US preparing for direct confrontation with Iran as it sharpens its ammunition and shares even more weaponry with its ally Israel. 

First, we saw the US use long-range B-2 stealth bombers in attacks on underground weapons stores in Yemen for the first time. Only the US has these weapons which are thought to be the world’s most powerful ‘bunker-busters’ and can reach 200-feet underground. If there is a war with Iran it will be one of the very few means of inflicting damage on some of Iran’s most heavily protected targets.

That might sound scaremongering but the bombing of the Houthi targets in Yemen with these tools looks uncomfortably like a dry run for any conflict with Iran. 

Secondly, we saw the deployment of an advanced US anti-missile system to Israel, again involving US military personnel. This is the THAAD weapon (terminal high-altitude aerial defence) which will supplement Israel’s own system that has not been as effective as the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) would like.

From an IDF perspective, if Netanyahu agrees to a substantial military attack on Iran, the likely response from Iran will be to do its best to swamp Israeli missile defences. Thus, the US THAAD deployment will reduce the risk of an effective Iranian response.

This all seems a far cry from the repeated US calls for a ceasefire, but these are best seen as part of a smoke screen, behind which lies a long-term enemy

This all seems a far cry from the repeated US calls for a ceasefire, but these are best seen as part of a smoke screen, behind which lies a long-term enemy. Most Europeans, including the British, tend to forget that ever since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 it has been Iran that is seen in Washington as by far the worst threat to US political and economic interests in the Middle East. 

This fits in substantially with the Israeli position where Iran is, in the longer term as by far the greatest threat to its security – far worse than Hamas, Hezbollah or any other political movement.   Moreover, an an Iran equipped with nuclear weapons really would be seen as an existential threat. That existential threat may not fully extend to the US view, but Iran is by some measure the greatest challenge to US Middle East policy.

As one US military journal put it this week:

“Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran’s armed allies across a nearly 2000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 US invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.” 

Israel wants rid of the regime in Tehran but that would also be a very good outcome for the many hawkish elements in the US political system. While world attention may be on the war in Gaza with this week’s killing of Yahya Sinwar, a potential conflict involving Iran may turn out to be even more significant.