Mike Small (Fife, Bella Caledonia): John MacDougall, the Labour MP for Glenrothes, in Fife, died today after a long illness. His death will trigger a by-election in a constituency that borders that of Gordon Brown. He won Glenrothes with a majority of 10,664 at the last General Election in 2005. They are saying that the by-election may not be until October.
Just as well, perhaps, as a YouGov poll out today shows Labour in meltdown in Scotland. Its survey on voting intentions for Westminster puts the SNP on 36% (double its support at the last election) whilst backing for Labour has collapsed to 29% (down 11%). The Tories are up 2% to 18% while the Liberals are on 13%.
This would mean Labour losing 19 MPs and retaining just 22 seats, while the SNP would move up from 6 to 26. The poll suggests Alistair Darling and Des Browne would both lose their places in the Commons.
It looks even worse for Labour when this is translated into a Holyrood context. Applied to the Scottish Parliament the You Gov results mean SNP would win 58 of Scotland's 73 Holyrood first-past-the-post seats. (SNP - 58 constituency seats (plus 37) Labour - 8 constituency seats (minus 29) LibDems - 6 constituency seats (minus 5) Tories - 1 constituency seat (minus 3))
On the basis of these figures all three of the candidates for the Labour leadership, Iain Gray (East Lothian), Andy Kerr (East Kilbride) and Cathy Jamieson (Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley), would lose to the SNP.
John MacDougall had served Fife for more than 20 years, after being elected to Fife Regional Council in 1982. He later became the leader of the council and also served as the director of Glenrothes Development Corporation and Fife Enterprise before being elected to the House of Commons. The last by-election fought in Fife, in February 2006, saw the Liberal Democrats seize power in a strong Labour seat. It could prove an omen.
