At his first press conference as NATO secretary general on 3 August, Anders Fogh Rasmussen outlined a number of priorities. Top of the list was assistance to Afghanistan. In Rasmussen's words NATO needed to "help prevent Afghanistan from becoming again the Grand Central Station of international terrorism". He was also quick to note that the security and credibility of the upcoming presidential elections on 20 August was paramount to this goal. Rasmussen moved quickly to try to substantiate these statements with a 5 August visit to Afghanistan, where he met with Government leaders, UN representatives and commanders of the NATO led UN mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). Secretary General Rasmussen was also due to meet with electoral candidates, evidently to reinforce his message that the elections need not only to be secure, but credible as well. However, while Rasmussen was making his calls, violence in Afghanistan escalated with roadside bombs killing civilians and police on 5 and 6 August, following rocket attacks in central Kabul on Tuesday.
The ToD Verdict: It is unclear whether this latest violence heeds the Taliban's 30 July call for Afghans to boycott the elections, turn to Jihad and attack "enemy centers". At least one of the attacks appeared to target civilians and therefore contravened the Taliban's published manual which tells fighters to avoid civilian targets. This leaves open to question what action the Taliban will take on election day other than their stated aim of blocking roads and preventing the passage of voters. What is clear, however, is that, despite Rasmussen's best efforts, serious concerns remain around the security of the elections and the effect this will have on voter turnout. Keep up to date with the latest developments and sharpest perspectives in a world of strife and struggle. Sign up to receive toD's daily security briefings via email by clicking here
Compounding the threat of violent action by the Taliban is the questionable legitimacy of the election. There have already been reports of unfair campaigning and advantage for President Karzai's campaign, from complaints about the international backing he receives to the TV airtime he garners. A recent report by the Times quoted rival candidate Abdullah Abdullah's campaign manager suggesting that there would be street demonstrations if Karzai won. Abdullah later denied the comments, but the government is investigating such warnings as a possible incitement to violence. The outcome of this investigation could further polarize voters. Given Abdullah's largely Tajik backing and Afghanistan's history of ethnic tension and tribal block voting, these events raise the real possibility of a renewed ethnic dimension to the problems Afghanistan faces.
Nigeria launches investigation into violent Islamist-police clashes
Following the massive loss of life during the Boko Haram uprising in Northern Nigeria last week, it has been announced this week that the government will investigate the death of the Boko Haram leader Muhammed Yusuf and the actions of the security forces.
Around 780 people were killed in the uprising which saw attacks on police stations by Boko Haram followed by the brutal and forcible repression of the group by security forces. Local news reports stated that civilians took to shaving their beards and altering their dress to avoid being killed by security forces who reportedly equated any Muslim with a member of Boko Haram. Reports also suggested that while authorities were aware of the possibility of a Boko Haram attack they did not take any action. In the wake of the deaths and yet another instance of sectarian violence in Northern Nigeria, it is yet to be seen whether the latest flurry of activity, which is to include the investigation as well as action by local governors to monitor their populations more closely, will have any effect. Until the more fundamental problem of poverty in the region is addressed, doubts remain that the radicalization of young men will be abated.
Ahmadinejad sworn in amid tight security
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was sworn in for his second presidential term on Wednesday. The Iran Daily reported that more than 5,000 security and police officers were deployed around central Tehran in response to fears that the ceremony would cause a repeat of the street demonstrations and violence that followed the announcement of the election results. Some reports suggested that there were minor demonstrations, which were quickly quelled. Ahmadinejad defiantly stated that he was not "waiting for your messages", referring to several countries' decisions not to congratulate him on his reelection, and warned that "Iranians neither value your scowling and bullying nor pay attention to your smiles and greetings". With the US seemingly now withdrawing their recognition of Ahmadinejad as an "elected leader" and instead acknowledging him only as "inaugurated" while voicing support for the Iranian people in their protest about the vote, it appears that the space for dialogue promised by the incoming Obama administration has all but vanished.
The swearing in also came the day after the commencement of the trial of over 100 people, including former government officials, for their role in post-election protest. The trial has already encountered accusations of bias with reports of false confessions and limited access to legal representation. The indictment that was read in court suggested that the accused had been planning the protests for over a year. The charge - of threatening national security - carries a potential death penalty. It is difficult to predict whether critics of the government will have the courage or capacity to take to the streets again as the trial progresses and Ahmadinejad becomes increasingly entrenched.
Further fighting blights South Sudan
The UN has condemned recent fighting in South Sudan, which left approximately 185 people, mostly women and children, dead. The latest bout of tribal violence was ostensibly provoked by suspected cattle rustling but the likelihood of this being linked to the wider instability between North and South Sudan, and indeed within South Sudan itself, cannot be ruled out. As the 2011 referendum - when South Sudan will decide whether it is to be a separate state - draws ever nearer, tensions between North and South Sudan are increasing with both sides seemingly posturing for another war. Some reports suggest that recent tensions in South Sudan are attributable to Northern interference. The factional South, however, is inherently instable given the number of armed groups active, not all of whom are supportive of the GOSS (Government of South Sudan).
US military bases divide South America
Colombian President Alvaro Uribe has been visiting countries in the region this week in an attempt to obtain support for a plan to increase the number of US military bases in the country. The bases would be used in attempts to prevent drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's largest producer of cocaine. Venezeulan president, Hugo Chavez has been the most vocal objector to the proposed scheme and has associated the plan with a US intention to provoke a war in the region.
This is the latest in a series of clashes between Colombia and Venezuela, with Colombia only recently accusing Venezuela of supplying weapons to FARC and Venezuela subsequently withdrawing its diplomats from the capital Bogota. A number of other South American states, including Bolivia and Argentina, are expected to echo Chavez's concerns in what will be a concerning episode for the US which was hoping for greater regional cooperation, particularly in combating the drugs trade.
Clinton to meet Somali president
Hilary Clinton is due to meet the president of Somalia, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, in Nairobi today. Prior to the meeting, Clinton stressed the need to work with Somalia to resolve the problems caused by continued fighting between Islamist groups including al Shabaab who want their interpretation of Islam imposed across the state and the barely functioning Somali government, most members of which live in exile. The US has already promised military aid to Somalia but it has not been actively involved in military operations in the country since its withdrawal at the head of the UNITAF mission in 1994.
The meeting comes just days after the latest Somali piracy operations secured a ransom by taking hostage a German ship and a foiled terrorist attack by Australian citizens linked to the al Shabaab group on Australian soil.