UN secretary general keeps focus on climate as Sunak abandons UK commitments

When it comes to matters of political timing, Rishi Sunak has had a bit of a problem this week.

It started with a leak to the BBC that he was planning to reverse government policy on a range of climate change commitments, reportedly a matter of intense private discussions at No. 10 in recent weeks.

At a hastily convened midweek press conference, Sunak stoutly denied the change of policy had anything to do with a by-election victory that was attributed by many to his party’s opposition of a clean air zone. Denying the connection was cue for hollow laughter, with the need to rescue his party in next year’s general election obviously the real motive.

The timing of the announcement was unfortunate in three respects. One was that it coincided with days of very heavy rain affecting much of south-west England and parts of south Wales, with flash flooding hitting several parliamentary constituencies the Tories need to retain or win back.

Secondly, it coincided with King Charles’s state visit to France, covered in depth by the BBC and likely to be watched by the older viewing public, potential Tory voters in particular. Charles’s personal concern over climate breakdown has been known for many years, has proved to be a prescient stance and was a key part of his much-lauded address to both houses of the French Senate.

The third problem was that though support was strong in right-wing tabloids like the Daily Mail, Daily Express and The Sun, it has gone down like a lead balloon in industry and was roundly condemned by Ford, other vehicle manufacturers and the expanding battery industry. These companies have committed many hundreds of millions of pounds to investing heavily in electric vehicles because of the 2030 ban on internal combustion engine (ICE) power, but now face an extension to 2035 before the ban is imposed.

Sunak’s U-turn runs a (non-ICE) coach and horses through all the planning and if it goes ahead will give companies no end of headaches. It is hardly surprising that even the supremely cautious Keir Starmer and his Labour Party have put their heads above the parapet on this one occasion, promising to reverse the change.

As to Sunak’s decision itself, a rapid assessment from Carbon Brief shows that interim targets for carbon reductions are moving out of reach, as is the chance of abiding by the Paris pledge to cut emissions to 68% below 1990 levels by 2030. As Carbon Brief reported, while the pledge is not legally binding, “it would be politically embarrassing for the country to fall short, as the recent host of the COP27 climate summit and a supposed leader on international action”.

One of the central issues for debate is climate breakdown and this is being driven hard by secretary-general António Guterres

Little noticed in the UK, Sunak’s decision parallels a move by the Swedish government to change climate legislation, making an increase in emissions well-nigh certain. But the plan is being met with such strong public opposition that it may even affect the stability of the current right-wing coalition.

There is, in addition, another issue that may make little immediate difference for the British electorate but will, in time, be far more significant, and this is what is happening in New York this week during the annual meeting of the UN General Assembly. One of the central issues for debate is climate breakdown and this is being driven hard by secretary-general António Guterres.

What comes through in many of his recent speeches is a deep and growing frustration at the paucity of intergovernmental cooperation and individual state action on preventing catastrophic climate breakdown. The issue was brought to the fore once again after the deadly Derna flood in Libya, a result of sudden rainfall more reminiscent of a tropical storm generated in an oceanic system than a Mediterranean storm, and his choice of words this week reflected his deep frustration.

Guterres has his critics on other matters but on this issue he is proving relentless, though it was not always so. When he was elected to the post in 2017 he scarcely mentioned it, partly because it was seen as the main concern of his predecessor, Ban Ki-Moon. But within a couple of years that had changed and his concern intensified. This may be partly down to his own career background. Although the secretary-general post has little direct power, it does have influence, especially in the hands of a determined individual. In this respect there are two aspects of his career that stand out.

He was prime minister of Portugal from 1995 to 2002, a country with many international connections, and a member of its Socialist Party. From a moderately leftist political position, he will have had plenty of experience of the workings of a primarily neoliberal international economic system, with all its deep inadequacies when it comes to climate breakdown.

He then moved from Portuguese politics to run the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), learning all too well the coming impact of huge climate-related population movements unless there is rapid decarbonisation.

And beyond his career experience, one other element is often forgotten. The secretary- general and senior staff have at their call a vast range of specialist opinion, all within the UN system and focusing in different ways on the climate issue. Obviously, there is the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, with 195 members, but there is also the UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, the Food and Agricultural Organization in Rome and the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva.

They feed in analysis to the centre, so that a realistic picture of the potentially disastrous impact of climate breakdown gets through, empowering Guterres and others in the upper echelons of the UN.

In the wider scheme of things Britain has little relevance. A decade or so ago the UK, with all its renewable energy potential, really could have played a leadership role, but that possibility has long since gone, one more reflection of a country turning in on itself, jailing climate protesters and making even more of a mockery of ‘Global Britain’.