Right-wing US and Israeli venom against the outline agreement is one thing; genuine concern about the Islamic regime’s Shia expansionism and human-rights record is however another.
It's easy not to recognise the real, if slow, progress that has been made on nuclear disarmement. There will be big challenges in 2014 to maintain it.
The interim nuclear deal between the western powers and Iran faces significant domestic and international challenges. But after long hostility it may prove a trust-building stepping-stone to a larger agreement.
We are indeed witnessing a slide towards fewer positive options, but such slides can be reversed. Iran is ready to negotiate, just not on the terms offered by the West.
If there is one thing that can save the present Islamist regime and bring together all the Principlists, fundamentalists, and Islamic guards, it is another disastrous war in the Middle East, the attack on Iran threatened by Israel and the US.
Unless strong political leadership and decisive diplomatic efforts are quickly shown on all sides, war between the US and Iran will become increasingly probable due to the elimination of all other policy options.
The United States is more seriously preparing for military action against Iran than is widely realised. An attack - obviating the need for one by Israel - may not be immediate and is not yet certain, but it is being intensively planned.
The aim of coercive diplomacy is to change the policies of another state. It does not aim at regime change.
Both Iranian and Israeli governments mutually benefit from the threat of war, as they both use the excuse to polish their propaganda and to silence internal opposition.
Iran and the 5 +1 group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany) began talks on 15 April in Istanbul with a plenary session of all parties. The White House has welcomed Iran-5+1 group talks as a ‘positive first step’.
Debates on the Iranian nuclear programme tend to adopt a Manichean view depicting it as a major security threat. If we want to properly address the issue of nuclear proliferation, it is time to switch to a different framework for negotiations.
Ayatollah Khamenei's recent declarations concerning the future of the Iranian nuclear dispute may sound belligerent, but they indeed reveal levers to be used for diplomacy. Acknowledging Iran’s role as a regional leader is a first step.
