With increasing geopolitical instability in oil producing states and the barriers that stand in the way of reaching a multilateral policy, the threat of sanctions in Iran only serves to intensify uncertainty surrounding oil price forecasts for 2012
The real Iranian threat is not its nuclear capacity but its independence. If Iran continues to stand as a model of defiance for increasingly poverty-stricken and restless populations of family fiefdoms in the Gulf, the current US-backed setups will either fall or be forced to democratise. These po
Iranian military action in the Strait of Hormuz is highly unlikely. It would not at all benefit most global and regional powers and would have disastrous consequences for Iran itself.
Morocco’s experience of the Arab spring of 2011, including constitutional reform and a parliamentary election, exemplifies the country’s political distinctiveness within the region. The events of 2012 will demonstrate how far hopes of real change can be sustained, says Valentina Bartolucci.
The Arab uprisings of 2011 are provoking the European Union into a rethink of its approach to encouraging democracy in its neighbourhood. A European Endowment for Democracy with a new kind of mandate could be at the centre, says Jacqueline Hale
The current situation reflects the bizarre politics of the region and the fluid nature of international politics, argues Wajahat Qazi
How are recent events in Iran to be interpreted? History has a lot to teach us, argues David Madden
As the US completed its official withdrawal from Iraq, a series of events stoked a political crisis that will push Iraq toward a precipice.
The dramatic citizens' uprisings and protests across the world this year are signals of an emerging era that demands a renewal of democracy itself, says Vidar Helgesen.
A topsy-turvy year full of dramatic reversals left sub-Saharan Africa still in search of of the balance that would harness good governance to economic progress, says Chukwu-Emeka Chikezie.
The hopes of liberation from dictatorship and penury shine less brightly at the end of this year of movement, says Patrice de Beer.
