While the region slips further into instability, the rejection of military action over Syria by the US Congress would be a huge stepping stone to undoing the US and western way of war since 9/11.
If the US decides to unilaterally attack Syria, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s recent observations on the subject will be fulfilled: "If any country attacks another when it wants, that is like the Middle Ages."
Regardless of how ‘surgical’ strikes are claimed to be, military action is a blunt instrument that, in this case, is on the table merely because of a poverty of alternatives.
Part Two of an analysis of the geopolitical sectarian dynamics and possible fall-out of military intervention in Syria, looking at prospects for meaningful change, and summing up on intervention. Read Part One here.
Part One of a two-part analysis of the geopolitical sectarian dynamics and possible fall-out of military intervention in Syria. Read Part Two here.
Soon, military action against the Assad regime by western powers may be all but inevitable. But what kind of action, for what purpose, in the service of what larger strategy?
Syria's internal stalemate and the wider regional standoff make a political settlement ever more remote. But the military trends are going the jihadist paramilitaries' way.
Syria's war is producing humanitarian crisis, the growth of radical paramilitaries, violence in Iraq, and intra-state conflict. In the morass there is but one chance of progress.
Video: The Friends of Syria have played what may be their 'last card' - what difference will it make on the ground? Yezid Sayigh talks to Jo Tyabji about spinning out military escalation, and the slim chance of creating commitments for de-escalation.
Arming Syrian rebel forces could tip the balance and break the deadlock - at the negotiating table.
Rather than giving the opposition a decisive means to victory, arms to Syria will only prolong the violence and suggest a grander agenda: rebalancing regional power.
Syria’s agony has been a critical factor in the surprise outcome of Iran’s presidential election. Iran’s Supreme Leader has risked a second opening to the west by allowing Dr Hassan Rouhani’s election to stand. The west must respond urgently in kind.
