Proponents of constitutional reform will be cheered further by the headline results from the latest opinion poll. The findings provide a number of interesting insights to inform OurKingdom's discussion on Real Change and possible strategies for democratic reform post-expenses. As with other recent surveys, YouGov's poll for the Fabian Society, released today, has been reported as offering further evidence of the public's desire for change. The results also suggest that among voters in Scotland, the part of the UK which has experienced the most far-reaching constitutional change as a result of devolution in the late 1990s, there is a particularly strong appetite for reform of the Westminster system.
Based on an on-line survey of 2000 adults from 1-3 July 2009, the polling produced four key findings which reformers will want to highlight. First, only 46 per cent of UK voters say they are satisfied with ‘the way democracy works in the UK' (if this sounds surprisingly high, it is worth noting that satisfaction levels with UK democracy were 30 percentage points higher that this in the late 1990s). Second, a majority of those polled do appear to feel that the current crisis represents a significant opportunity for reform: 54 per cent agreed with the statement that ‘this is a once-in-a-generation chance for a major overhaul to improve our democracy'.
Third, the poll suggests a similar majority in favour of citizens, rather than politicians, being at the vanguard of reform: 52 per cent say they would prefer reform proposals emerge from a citizens' convention, compared to just 19 per cent in favour of leaving the task to MPs. Fourth, there are some strong indicators of the types of reforms which the public would be most likely to favour, with at least half of the respondents prioritising both fixed parliamentary terms and a more proportional voting system from among a menu of reform options.
As with any opinion poll, findings like these should really come with various caveats and health warnings attached. YouGov's use of internet polling has always raised concerns about whether the sample has a greater tendency towards being ‘self-selecting'. In this instance, there are also issues which could, and probably should, be raised about how the questions have been phrased, particularly those relating to specific reform alternatives. More importantly, though, as I've stressed before on Our Kingdom, it would be naïve to assume that polling results like these reflect a deep-rooted desire for change.
Closer inspection of the poll's findings suggests that attitudes towards reform continue to correlate closely with party identification. This should serve to remind us that support in opinion polls for constitutional reform will not translate readily into an electoral mandate for such reforms. Supporters of the main two parties remain considerably more sceptical about reform than supporters of the Liberal Democrats and the smaller parties. An astonishing 76 per cent of Labour voters declare themselves satisfied with how democracy works in the UK, way above the average of 46 per cent for all voters. Labour voters are also less likely than average to support specific reforms, albeit with two notable exceptions - replacing the Lords with an elected second chamber and replacing the Monarchy with an elected president as head of state.
By contrast, a striking 70 per cent of Conservative voters chose fixed election dates from the menu of reform options, compared to a 59 per cent average across all respondents. Conservative supporters are also more likely to favour the introduction of policies to allow voters to recall their MPs and force a by-election. However, the most striking thing about those intending to vote Conservative at the next election is that they appear as likely as Labour voters to favour the constitutional status quo. As ever, it is only among Liberal Democrat voters that the desire for constitutional reform seems unambiguous and that clear majorities emerge in favour of proportional representation.
As Conservative Central Office absorb findings such as these, their current position on constitutional reform - to try to preserve the current system by making it more transparent - will be strongly reinforced. And there is no doubt that the Conservatives will win the next election if opinion polls results continue to read like these. That the Conservative have a 13 point lead over Labour barely matters any more, what really counts is that the Conservatives are so far ahead among those social groups most likely to vote: they have a 24 points lead among voters aged 55 and over and are 18 points ahead among ABC1 voters.
Does this mean that the golden opportunity reform will be lost? Not quite. There are inter-generational differences which suggest the link between party identification and attitudes towards reform could be eroding, albeit in unlikely and paradoxical ways. While support for the Liberal Democrats is highest among 18-34 year olds, it is within this very same age group that the lowest levels of enthusiasm are found for key Liberal Democrat policies such as fixed election dates, proportional representation, and an elected second chamber to replace the House of Lords. By contrast, while Conservative support is clearly greatest, and Liberal Democrat support clearly lowest, among those aged 55 and over, this age group also turns out to be the most likely to support the more radical reform proposals associated with the latter party.
We would need detailed cross-tabulations of the data to disentangle all of this, but what does seem evident is that older voters have by far the clearest views on both the need for reform and on the specific reforms they would like to see. Electors who were born before the mid-1950s come across as far more radical that those whose first opportunity to vote in a general election came in 1997 or afterwards. A full 61 per cent of older voters agree that ‘this is a once-in-a-generation chance for a major overhaul to improve our democracy'. It may well be the last chance for their generations. Perhaps years of experience with British democracy have left the baby boomers with the words of The Who ringing in their ears: ‘we won't get fooled again'. Alas, should they opt to vote Conservative, then well they might.