Trump wants the ethnic cleansing of Gazans. Will it happen?

One week ago, Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu was in a political mess. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) had failed to destroy Hamas and two of the ceasefire conditions were proving problematic for his image – and thus his desire to return to war.

The first was the re-opening of northern Gaza. The return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who’d been displaced by Israel’s attacks was widely covered to considerable impact worldwide, especially as so many came back to destroyed homes.

The other was the increased aid for Gaza as a whole, which made obvious what many had long known: rapid reprovision had always been possible but prevented by Israel. Even as aid now flowed, it was not remotely enough to counter the widespread privation, malnutrition and illness caused by 16 months of shortages. To make matters worse, key supplies intended to be shipped in during the ceasefire, such as tents, were simply not being delivered through Israel.

With his already-diminished global status rocked further, Netanyahu’s hopes of resuming his war on Gaza would very much depend on the attitude of Donald Trump. The US president’s position has now been clarified, with his extraordinary calls for the entire population of Gaza to be relocated to Egypt and Jordan – an act of intended ethnic cleansing that could hardly have been better for Netanyahu and the far-right politicians in his unstable coalition.

Those more extreme members of the Israeli government will undoubtedly feel Trump has paved the way to forcing Palestinians out of Gaza once and for all. What’s more, there is every chance that the US president will also support the annexation of the occupied West Bank, where Jewish settlers are already taking ever more control, making life increasingly difficult for the three million Palestinian residents.

These people would be encouraged to leave and then even the two million Palestinian citizens of Israel would find life progressively harder. For the extreme elements within Netanyahu’s government, the dream of a religiously pure Israel would finally begin to take shape.

Much of what happens next depends on the US president, and there are several aspects to consider here. First is Trump’s own self-awareness. Some critics talk of his excessive egotism and others see him as a conventional narcissist. Perhaps more convincing is to see him as a solipsist, a narcissist so self-focused that he does not even need to be liked.

Beyond that there are straightforward political reasons for his stance on Gaza, an area that Trump likely views as having two very useful attributes. Firstly, it really is prime real estate and is also likely to offer up access to some rather impressive offshore gas reserves. Then, there is the fact that his domestic power base includes many millions of Christian Zionists, for whom the Jewish stewardship of the Holy Land is an essential part of their God’s plan for the End Days.

Global public opinion remains the biggest obstacle to Trump and Netanyahu’s plan, particularly with Israel now widely viewed as a pariah state. This is an increasing problem for many Israelis, who are dismayed and even distressed at the actions of Netanyahu’s government. With Trump on his side, their upset is unlikely to cause Netanyahu much lost sleep in the short term, but it may be a different story ahead of the next Israeli election in October of next year – particularly as the extent of the assault on Gaza becomes more obvious every day.

Over the past 16 months, the IDF has pursued the Dahiya doctrine of systematically punishing the civilian population of a territory in revolt – the classic Israeli approach when facing an entrenched insurgent opposition.

This has caused a huge humanitarian disaster in Gaza, with the estimated death toll rising to 64,000 people when those missing under destroyed buildings are included, according to recent research published in the Lancet medical journal.

They have been killed with the military support of principally the US but also Britain, Germany and a few other states. US arms supplies, for example, have involved a series of around a hundred arms shipments including 57,000 155mm artillery shells, 14,000 Mk-84 2,000-pound bombs and 6,500 Mk-81 500-pound bombs.

The total power of the bombs, shells and missiles dropped on Gaza is estimated to be 75,000 tons of explosives so far, according to a new report from the UK-based Scientists for Global Responsibility, Gaza: How the West’s Weapons are fuelling Catastrophe.

That can also be expressed as 75 kilotons, the measure normally used to assess the explosive power of nuclear armaments. Gaza has now been hit by conventional explosives that have cumulatively more than six times the power of the Hiroshima bomb. However the Gaza war develops, its destruction will haunt successive Israeli governments for generations.