What Trump’s win means for Africa’s trade and investment

As Donald Trump begins his second term as US president in January, he’s set to intensify his ‘America First’ approach to foreign policy and international relations. But this pragmatic, investment-centred vision isn’t entirely bad news for the African continent.

During Joe Biden’s presidency, the picture looked very different of course. His administration’s US-Africa strategy and rhetoric emphasised cooperation and mutual interests, highlighting Africa’s independence, economic aspirations and the importance of addressing global issues such as climate change and health crises.

Now, with Trump back in office, Africa will have to grapple again with an overtly transactional diplomatic approach.

But US engagement is still pivotal even if it is always on the US’s terms. In a new multipolar world, Africa’s resources and loyalty are increasingly sought after. Meanwhile, the continent faces diverse and complex challenges, from democratic backslides to youth unemployment and migration pressures, alongside vast potential for growth led by its youth and innovation.

One unique point of continuity with prior administrations may lie in Trump’s ties to Africa through family connections. Trump’s son-in-law is Lebanese-Nigerian and remains a potent force in shaping US policy and economic engagement on the continent. Trump also previously appointed Nigerian-born private equity mogul Adebayo Ogunlesi to his economic advisory council before its sudden dissolution.

Remittances from African diasporas contribute billions annually to African economies, and diaspora-driven initiatives can build bridges that bypass traditional aid. With less focus on aid-driven programming, a Trump-led government might pursue economic partnerships that empower the diaspora to play a central role in trade and investment ties, bridging the two continents through entrepreneurship rather than aid dependency.

In Trump’s previous term, his main flagship programme for the continent was the ‘Prosper Africa’ initiative, which launched in 2018 and aimed to help US companies wanting to invest in projects in African countries. His second biggest initiative was the Development Finance Corporation-funded development projects in Africa. Biden not only kept both running but actually invested more in them. Trump is likely to ramp them up further – offering Africa more direct economic partnership options and deepening trade and infrastructure ties.

Trump’s administration demonstrated selective but meaningful engagement on African democratic issues, a calculated approach to democratisation, where US stability interests aligned with African goals. But this model often appeals to African leaders seeking sovereignty over political interference. While the Biden administration emphasised democracy promotion through grassroots initiatives, Trump’s inclination toward limited multilateralism might mean more self-directed democracy-building by African nations.

He also engaged selectively in African security issues. In Sudan, his administration played a critical role following the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir by leveraging diplomatic pressure to support the country's shift toward civilian governance. By removing Sudan from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism (albeit contingent on its normalisation of relations with Israel) the Trump administration opened the door for Sudan to access international financial support. This move provided Sudan with vital economic relief, setting a foundation for its fragile transition toward democracy.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Trump administration encouraged governance reform through strategic sanctions and diplomatic pressure, urging former president Joseph Kabila to respect constitutional term limits, which ultimately led to the first peaceful transfer of power in the country’s history. By targeting officials involved in corruption and human rights abuses, the US signalled its support for stability-driven democratic change without committing extensive resources to nation-building.

During a recent high-profile US visit, Kenyan President William Ruto said that African leaders were not looking to take sides in the squabble between the East and West. Rather, they were eager for trade agreements that fostered equitable growth and job creation, especially as the US and China competed for influence on the continent. As China offers the continent sweetheart deals such as tariff-free offers, and concessional credit, Trump would likely both seek to counter China’s influence and expand trade and economic partnerships with Africa.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act, which has granted African countries tariff-free access to US markets since 2000, has been instrumental in boosting African exports. While Trump did previously signal that he was thinking of ending the scheme in 2025, his desire to counter China's growing economic influence in Africa means he is likely to want to continue the tried and tested partnership.

Trump’s administration is also set to continue programmes such as the Young African Leaders Initiative, which empower youth through investments, leadership, and entrepreneurial training – avenues aligned with his focus on direct economic returns and trade-based diplomacy.

Trump is likely to disagree with one priority of Biden’s Africa strategy: climate resilience and healthcare. For Africa, where climate and health challenges are intertwined, Trump’s approach may prioritise immediate health needs and resilience-building over expansive climate commitments.

That said, this approach might actually appeal to African nations that prioritise pragmatic partnerships addressing immediate healthcare needs, as Trump’s Covid-19 response in Africa demonstrated, which focused on sending ventilators and other equipment over global health and climate accords.

Africa’s role within a multipolar world continues to evolve but Africa’s relationship with the US under Trump may offer a more straightforward, interest-based engagement focused on infrastructure, trade, and business opportunities. Trump’s preference for direct economic investment over ideological engagement or aid could actually work to support Africa’s pursuit of economic self-reliance and sovereign political frameworks.