Kyiv fears the war in Ukraine will be shunted down America’s foreign policy agenda by the escalating crisis in the Middle East, Ukrainian diplomats and politicians have told openDemocracy.
The US presidential election is not due for another year, but Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza has brought forward questions about continuing US support for Ukraine.
“We were prepared for political turbulence to hit us, but we didn’t think it would happen so quickly,” a source in Ukrainian diplomatic circles told openDemocracy on condition of anonymity.
The focus has quickly shifted to the US ally of Israel – and how exactly the US will decide to support both states.
Former Ukrainian foreign minister Pavel Klimkin summed up the problem to openDemocracy: “When you are friends with the West, their interests become yours, but your interests do not always become theirs.”
While Joe Biden has reaffirmed US backing for Ukraine, proposing a $100bn package to assist Ukraine, Israel, the Pacific region and US border security collectively, the new speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson suggested last week that Congress should vote on US military assistance to Ukraine and Israel separately.
Kyiv is understood to see this as bad news for Ukraine, as any vote on US assistance to Ukraine will likely be delayed in comparison to assistance to Israel.
Ukraine could end up “competing” with Israel for 155-millimetre artillery shells – a key munition for Ukraine’s resistance against RussiaYegor Chernev MP
There is, though, no consensus among Republicans on the issue. Republican senate leader Mitch McConnell, for instance, has argued that aid to Ukraine and Israel should be considered in a single package.
Ukrainian MP Yegor Chernev, a member of the ruling Servant of the People party, told openDemocracy that Ukrainian MPs had travelled to Washington DC over the past week to urge US Democrat and Republican politicians to vote on assistance to Israel and Ukraine as a single package. According to Chernev, they had argued to US officials that Russia, Iran and Hamas are a “single axis of evil” in light of Russia’s use of Iranian drones against Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s relationship with Hamas.
Beyond the procedure of approval for US support, Chernev said Ukrainian MPs had also discussed the details of US military assistance with congressmen and Pentagon officials.
According to Chernev, Ukraine could end up “competing” with Israel for 155-millimetre artillery shells – a key munition for Ukraine’s resistance against Russia, Chernev said.
But, he claimed, Ukraine could request more cluster munitions from the US, as Israel does not use them.
Ukrainian MP Anastasia Radina, head of the country’s parliamentary committee on anti-corruption policy, told openDemocracy that some US congressmen harbour “misconceptions about where the money allocated for military aid to Ukraine goes”.
Most US military assistance funds do not go to Ukraine, but rather are used to produce US military goods by US companies, Radina explained.
Still, Ukrainian MPs Chernev and Radina say they have little doubt that the US will continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine. The more contentious issue, at least among Republicans, is the prospect of direct financial support for the Ukrainian budget.
Most likely, US support for Ukraine’s public finances will be the subject of a heated debate between Democrats and Republicans during the vote for aid to Ukraine. According to Chernev, some Republicans have questioned the wisdom of pouring money into the Ukrainian budget when the US has its own internal problems.
Radina said that Ukrainian MPs’ counter argument is that “Russia is doing everything to destroy the Ukrainian economy”, and that if Russia “kills” the Ukrainian economy, Ukraine will struggle to win the war. Supporting the country’s economy is therefore as important as supporting the military, she said.
Whose interest
In reaction to Hamas’ 7 October attack on Israel, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyi said Israel’s right to defend itself was beyond doubt and condemned the terrorist attack.
Zelenskyi was reportedly ready to go to Israel to express support for the country, but, according to The Times of Israel, was refused by the Israeli side. Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine later stated that no official request for a visit was sent.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyi and Ukrainian diplomats have been trying to build closer relations with Arab states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia in the wake of Russia’s invasion, including a Ukraine summit in the latter in August this year.
“We don’t want Americans to pay for the war. We want Russia to pay”Daria Kaleniuk, anti-corruption activist
But now both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have publicly blamed Israel for the war. Zelenskyi has since held phone conversations with Saudi and Turkish officials in the hope of patching up relations with these countries, where he “highlighted the need of preventing further escalation of the conflict and civilian casualties”. On 17 October, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs published a statement that condemned Hamas but affirmed support for resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict through diplomatic means.
Klimkin told openDemocracy that many factors are now playing against Ukraine. At the top of the list sit Israel-Palestine and the US presidential elections, but elections to the European Parliament next year could also play a role, he said.
The prospect of a regional conflict emerging from the current confrontation between Israel and Palestine is also a factor. Three Ukrainian MPs who travelled to the US told openDemocracy that, in their estimation, US officials were predicting a protracted war in the Middle East.
Klimkin believes it is therefore important for Ukraine to show that it can “bear at least a small part of the costs” of fighting Russia itself. This would involve developing the country’s military-industrial complex, he said. Ukraine has already begun producing mortars, ammunition and drones. In addition, Ukraine is discussing joint production of weapons inside the country with Western allies. In September, the US and Ukraine signed a production deal for air defence complexes to be built in the country.
At meetings in Washington, the Ukrainian delegation offered options on how to reduce the costs of the war in Ukraine, including the confiscation of $350bn (£288bn) of frozen Russian sovereign assets around the world, of which $211bn (£174bn) are located in EU countries.
“We don’t want Americans to pay for the war. We want Russia to pay,” says Daria Kaleniuk, an anti-corruption activist who also travelled to Washington last week.
The current strategy of the Biden administration appears to be to support Ukraine for as long as necessary, prevent it from losing and gradually provide additional assistance. But this is not the same as allowing Ukraine to win quickly, Kaleniuk explains.
Given the war in the Middle East and the upcoming elections in the United States, Ukraine needs to “act more rationally and less emotionally”, advises Klimkin.
