Anthony Barnett (London,OK): After watching the lackluster BBC commentary on Glasgow East through the night I came away convinced that something momentous had happened - as rapidly analysed by Gerry Hassan in OK - but that the pre-prepared conventional wisdom would hold the fort and that everyone would go on holiday and Brown would proceed. In fact it now seems to me after glancing through the weekend's papers and watching the TV news that there is going to be a concerted effort to remove him before the Labour Party conference.
The prospect of having to sit and be interviewed with poker faced loyalty and grim smiles is too appalling and unconvincing. It is bound to go wrong and it is clear between the lines that this is what most Labour leaders now think. Losing London and the local elections was a kick in the teeth for the incumbents. Losing Crewe and Nantwich to the Tories was awful. Coming behind the BNP in Henley was terrible. Permitting David Davis to gain a respectable turnout and provide the Tories with the flag of liberty was painful. But now to lose in Gordon's "back yard" to the Nats.
The momentum of decomposition is accelerating. Brown cannot now provide a rallying cry for much of his own party to get off what remains its backside. (Remember, only 9 per cent of party members supported 42 days - and that was before the debate.) Something will have to be done. It may be too late to save the election - but it is not too late to save half the party's current seats in the Commons and prevent them coming third to the Lib Dems.
A good friend said to me recently how can it be this bad when less than a year ago Labour was 15 points in the lead. Are we not now seeing another big blip - a trough for Labour rather than a peak but something that will pass? My answer is that the base line rejection of New Labour took place in 2005. Only 22 per cent of the total electorate and a third of those actually voting cast their ballots for the 'people's party' holding their nose as Polly T put it. Even then only 20,000 votes separated Labour from a hung parliament, which is what we would have had if the Tories had had a younger leader and the Lib Dems an older one.
The rejection of New Labour took place then. The surprise was Brown's reversing the state of opinion because he was such a refreshing difference from Blair and offered, as he kept on saying, change - as in "Let the change begin". But he didn't. Instead he offered more of the same. This was what failing to call an election really told us. That is why it proved so unpopular. We have since seen a return to base line for Labour - a line that was pointing downwards. Brown made his call and the verdict is in.
