Will Labour tackle the climate crisis?

Major global concerns include the risk of further pandemics, nuclear conflict and AI/cyber going disastrously wrong. But by far the biggest challenge humanity faces remains an environmentally limited world leading to climate breakdown, grotesquely divided wealth distribution and governments addicted to preparing for war.

It is in this context that the Labour Party this month won a massive majority – at least in terms of seats – and presented itself as a reformist government determined to heal a broken Britain and restore a sense of national pride.

The economic and social disasters of the past 14 years and the failure to address environmental challenges set the bar for the incoming government so low that almost any change would have been noteworthy.

But now that we’ve had the colourful if archaic King’s Speech, how does Keir Starmer’s version of Labour measure up to the need for radical change? The short answer is seriously disappointing, but there are some small signs of hope.

On the matter of security, it looks like little change and much more of the same. This is unsurprising: there was little to choose between the Tory and Labour manifestos before the election, with both advocating increased spending.

Labour has already announced a strategic defence review to report back early in the new year, but based on past performance and statements coming out of government, the trend is towards re-arming Britain, not engaging in any serious rethinking of security. Do not expect any thoughtful analysis of the disastrous wars of recent years; as far as Labour is concerned Afghanistan is a thing of the past, and the Iraq War and the mess in Libya are best forgotten.

Overlooked is that while the anti-ISIS air war of 2014-18 killed tens of thousands of its supporters, the US military reports that the movement remains vigorous across much of the Sahel and is regrouping in Iraq and Syria. That is all before we look at the current disastrous war in Gaza where the UK’s close involvement with Israel is unlikely to change.

As to wealth distribution, the global picture is little short of obscene, with the wealth of just eight men on a par with the combined wealth of half the world’s people. Even in the UK, the distribution of wealth is a grim reflection of mass marginalisation. If Labour follows its manifesto promises there should be some very modest changes, including improved labour rights and some clawing back of taxes from non-doms, but wholesale tax reform or even a systematic assault on tax evasion and avoidance are simply not on the cards.

Essentially, Labour under Starmer, just like New Labour under Tony Blair, will not address the underlying failures of the neoliberal model.

What, then, of the third issue, climate breakdown? The official view of the elite system is best summarised by the severe sentences meted out to five environmental protesters last week, who together received 21 years for conspiring to organise a nonviolent action.

Whether that is the attitude of the Labour leadership is by no means clear, particularly as in government the party is showing signs of action on the climate crisis, such as rapid action on solar and on-shore wind projects and plans for warm home schemes.

Compare this with the Conservatives since 2010. The party was held back for the first five years by the Liberal Democrats in coalition, but from 2015 onwards it downgraded the whole issue of climate breakdown, so much so that the statutory Committee on Climate Change recently confirmed that the UK is way behind its target of the UK’s Paris agreement to cut carbon emissions by 68% by 2030.

The issue for Labour is that the climate is now changing faster than anticipated, just as many governments and would-be governments show little interest in action or are even in active denial of the problem. Labour is likely to be in power for five years – perhaps even ten. This is very much the decade in which the entire climate issue will come to a head – full-scale climate breakdown must be countered and Labour has the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to play a significant role in this.

That seems a pipedream but consider the following. Thanks to the efforts of many climate professionals and others, far more is known about the workings of the global climate system. There is still very much more to know, but predictive modelling has become far better than a couple of decades ago and with it the confidence of the climate science community to speak truth to power and not hold back.

Then there are the extraordinary improvements in the technologies and especially the costs of decarbonisation. Time and again, the costs of generating electricity from renewable resources have come down way below grid parity with coal, oil or gas. Despite the vigorous opposition of the fossil carbon industries, time is simply not on their side.

There are also the all too numerous examples of actual climate chaos, whether floods, droughts, storms and the like or the regular breaking of records as the global climate system becomes more and more energised. Few of the individual disasters get through to the mainstream Western media, largely because most occur in the Global South, but that will change.

Less than a year ago, for example, the Libyan coastal town of Derna was engulfed in a catastrophic flood following torrential rain and a double dam collapse. Over 4,000 people died, thousands more were missing and around 40,000 people lost their homes.

If that kind of disaster happens in a major Western state, perhaps with a far worse loss of life, then that might be the kind of wake-up call that will begin to spur political minds to the radical action required. Such disasters are well-nigh certain to occur given current trends.

As it happens, the UK has huge unrealised potential for rapid decarbonisation; the main thing lacking is political will. There was little or no chance of that under the Tories, but there is, just, under Labour.

Starmer’s government faces many problems, not least bitter criticism over its multiple roles in Gaza or questions over the extent of its commitment to poverty alleviation. Perhaps those will change for the better, but don’t hold your breath. On the climate issue, though, the signs are just a bit better, with potential for rapid improvement. That could be at least one positive outcome of the recent general election.